Tariffs and Cartel Violence Pose Challenges for U.S.-Mexico Agricultural Trade

U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade faces uncertainty in 2026 as tariffs and cartel violence threaten farmers and ranchers. Congressman Henry Cuellar and Texas leaders weigh in on impacts and risks.

post_206.jpeg

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Meets with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins in the National Palace in Mexico City. (Nov. 3, 2025)

Gobierno de Mexico

SOUTH TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — So far, 2026 has been a year of challenges for agricultural trade between the United States and Mexico. Among the major issues are President Donald Trump’s talk of new tariffs following a February 20 Supreme Court decision that struck down his emergency tariffs, and concerns over recent reports of cartel violence in Mexico.

U.S. Representative Henry Cuellar (D-TX) says there is no doubt the tariffs have affected trade.

“The tariffs, if you talk to the ranchers and the farmers, they certainly have been impacted,” Rep. Cuellar said. “And as you know, the Supreme Court declared those tariffs unconstitutional, and then he dug in and went into another section, which allows them to put tariffs for 150 days.”

Cuellar is openly opposed to the tariffs, citing the impact on prices: “They raise the prices of goods, and that’s why the affordability issue is so important.”

Republican Texas State Representative Janie Lopez offered a statement on the issue:

“Anything that is USMCA-compliant is exempt from the new 15 percent tariffs,” Lopez said. “If the item is not USMCA-compliant, it would have a tariff, essentially a trade enforcement tool. And, I should remind you, it was the threat of tariffs that made Mexico decide to make the water payments it owed.”

Beyond tariffs, cartel activity in Mexico has raised concerns about potential disruptions to agricultural trade. Now, Rep. Lopez also told RFD NEWS that the cartels can do damage to trade by having road blockages in Mexico on the other side of that bridge, and also by the suspension of USDA inspections. This raises concerns about the extent of the damage they could cause.

Despite these concerns, Rep. Cuellar said he is not currently worried about cartels blocking agricultural shipments.

“Well, right now, we haven’t seen the drug cartels affect the movement of traffic. As you know, they focus on one thing, and that is drugs, human trafficking, smuggling...that’s what they’re focusing on,” Cuellar said. “They haven’t, as far as we know, really, purposely focused on the supply chains, you know, that will affect the U.S.”

Still, he says U.S. agricultural interests should remain vigilant regarding cartel activity.

“I want to commend the Mexican government because, you know, they lost 25 soldiers,” Cuellar said. “It’s hard when you lose military soldiers as they did, but they did go after the number one campaign. And, of course, now we’ve got to see how this is going to [develop] — who’s going to take over and what sort of operation — but anytime the top person, you know, leaves for whatever reason or dies, then there’s always a struggle to see who’s going to take over.”

For now, those engaged in agricultural trade with Mexico will have to wait and see how the situation develops at the top of the nation’s cartels.

Frank McCaffrey reporting for RFD NEWS.

Related Stories
Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig discusses market conditions, policy priorities, and his outlook for agriculture moving forward.
NEFB President Mark McHargue recaps the Farm Bureau’s Annual Convention, producer sentiment in Nebraska, and discusses key issues facing agriculture.
Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota joined us to discuss key ag policy developments and his outlook for agriculture in 2026.
House Agriculture Committee Democrats are calling for action on the Farm and Family Relief Act, warning that proposed SNAP cost shifts to states could reduce food assistance for low-income families amid ongoing tariffs and trade disruptions that continue to strain U.S. farmers.
From “right to repair” to investigations into the “Big Four” meatpackers, antitrust issues were a major legal topic in 2025 and promise to have a long-term impact on the agriculture industry in the future.
Expanded school access to whole milk provides modest but reliable demand support for U.S. dairy producers.

RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey covers news from Texas, in the US-Mexico border region. He has provided in-depth coverage of immigration, the 2021 Texas freeze, the arrival of the New World screwworm, and Mexico’s water debt owed under a 1944 treaty.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Canada’s new voluntary Grocery Sector Code of Conduct will take effect on Jan. 1, a goodwill effort to promote fairness and transparency between retailers and support farms that sell directly to stores.
With record grain harvests and rising global ethanol demand, leaders across the ag and energy sectors are pushing for year-round E15 sales to mitigate the strain on grain trade.
Concerns over Chronic Wasting Disease are fueling a long-standing legal battle between Minnesota regulators and deer farmers. The case could soon reach the state’s Supreme Court with broader implications for agriculture.
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) and Public Lands Council (PLC) are praising the passage of a bill to delist gray wolves as an endangered species by the U.S. House last week.
USDA Undersecretary Luke Lindberg told RFD-TV News that we can only guess what Congress will do down the road. Still, the USDA recognizes its responsibility to spend resources efficiently and effectively.
National Land Realty’s Jeramy Stephens shares his outlook on farmland market trends, which remain under close watch as new federal assistance programs roll out — with experts analyzing potential impacts on land values, buying, and stability.