Livestock economists are not expecting much change in next year’s cattle market.
Experts are Rabobank say producers are holding back replacement heifers as they continue fighting drought and high feed prices. Right now, researchers are focused on studying total female cattle slaughter numbers, and they estimate 2022 will end with 17.6 million head of cows and heifers slaughtered. They warn those numbers could have long-lasting implications, including sacrificing gains in next year’s cow herd.
Without better precipitation over the winter and into next spring, researchers say the pattern will likely continue into 2024’s cow herd.
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Key signs of the U.S. beef herd’s recovery are improved pasture conditions, lower feed costs, and increased regulatory alignment and support for producers to implement targeted grazing practices.
Congress has just over a month of working days left for the year. Plan for uneven USDA service until funding is restored, and closely monitor Farm Bill talks, as avoiding Permanent Law before January 1 is the single biggest risk to markets and milk prices.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated this week that the government will intervene to help, following China’s withdrawal from the U.S. soybean market. One trader says the industry will remain in a holding pattern until Tuesday.
Beef demand could be influencing other economic sectors, as consumers adjust spending habits to prioritize higher-priced beef products.
