NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — When calf prices are high, it is easy to look at bred heifer prices and assume you can raise replacements cheaper—but the math is trickier than it looks.
University of Kentucky Extension livestock economist Kenny Burdine points to three big guardrails:
- Opportunity cost—the largest cost of a homegrown heifer is the cash you don’t take by selling her at weaning (and high interest rates make that foregone income even more expensive).
- Attrition and selection risk—not every heifer you develop will breed or meet your standards; the “misses” get sold as feeders, and their losses get rolled into the cost of the ones that do make your herd.
- Timing value—a bred heifer purchased this fall likely weans a calf in 2026, while a weaned heifer you retain won’t produce until 2027; if 2026 is a strong calf year, that earlier calf value is already “priced into” today’s bred heifer.
Practically, compare apples to apples: start with her market value at weaning as your first cost, add realistic development expenses (feed, grazing, breeding, health, labor, facilities), include conception rates and cull losses, and apply a sensible interest or discount rate. Then run a timing scenario for 2026 vs. 2027 calf values to see which path best fits your cash flow, genetics goals, forage base, and labor.
Farm-Level Takeaway: You cannot out-cheap the market if you ignore opportunity cost, culls, and timing—price the heifer you keep as if you bought her, and let realistic breeding and calf-year assumptions pick the winner.
Related Stories
Expanding bioethanol use strengthens rural economies, supports farm markets, and positions U.S. agriculture at the center of global low-carbon trade.
“President Trump Undercuts America’s Cattle Producers,” says NCBA
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is investing now to make markets less volatile for ranchers over the long term and more affordable for consumers, according to a press release.
NCBA CEO Colin Woodall says more conversations need to occur with stakeholders present surrounding President Trump’s proposal to lower consumer beef prices with Argentinian imports.
Bubba and Amy Miller run Miller Cattle Company in Eros, Louisiana. After visiting other homesteading fairs, they decided to put on their own.
Beef industry groups seem to agree — market-based pricing, not federal intervention, best supports rancher livelihoods and long-term beef supply stability.
Cattle groups say additional imports would offer little relief for consumers but could erode rancher confidence as the industry begins to rebuild herds.
The USDA’s latest Hogs and Pigs Report caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.
The government shutdown has touched nearly every sector of the ag industry since it began, and now impacts are spilling over into dairy.
