NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — When calf prices are high, it is easy to look at bred heifer prices and assume you can raise replacements cheaper—but the math is trickier than it looks.
University of Kentucky Extension livestock economist Kenny Burdine points to three big guardrails:
- Opportunity cost—the largest cost of a homegrown heifer is the cash you don’t take by selling her at weaning (and high interest rates make that foregone income even more expensive).
- Attrition and selection risk—not every heifer you develop will breed or meet your standards; the “misses” get sold as feeders, and their losses get rolled into the cost of the ones that do make your herd.
- Timing value—a bred heifer purchased this fall likely weans a calf in 2026, while a weaned heifer you retain won’t produce until 2027; if 2026 is a strong calf year, that earlier calf value is already “priced into” today’s bred heifer.
Practically, compare apples to apples: start with her market value at weaning as your first cost, add realistic development expenses (feed, grazing, breeding, health, labor, facilities), include conception rates and cull losses, and apply a sensible interest or discount rate. Then run a timing scenario for 2026 vs. 2027 calf values to see which path best fits your cash flow, genetics goals, forage base, and labor.
Farm-Level Takeaway: You cannot out-cheap the market if you ignore opportunity cost, culls, and timing—price the heifer you keep as if you bought her, and let realistic breeding and calf-year assumptions pick the winner.
Related Stories
This Firm to Farm blog post by farm legal and taxation expert Roger McEowen of the Washburn School of Law discusses the Small Tracts Act and resolving issues with the US Forest Service.
Tens of millions of Americans eat beef every single day. As a staple of grilling season and a go-to for major holidays, beef can be enjoyed in a variety of ways. Here are six savory recipes for beef.
Spice up your morning with this quick, flavorful Southwest breakfast recipe! RFD-TV’s Tammi Arender and Lyndi Knowles of ZK Ranches share this hearty and flavorful breakfast idea.
Tammi Arender’s recipe for Hawaiian Ribeye Steaks with Grilled Pineapple Citrus Salad will make you feel like you are on the beach surrounded by palm trees. She joins the Tennessee Beef Council to walk us through the recipe!
