NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best.
Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light.
With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
Stay alert for trade announcements—especially border reopening timelines, tariff threats, and developments in Brazil’s export flows.
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R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard joins Market Day Report for his insight on the USDA’s plan to strengthen the U.S. beef industry.
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Until a phased reopening is inked, plan for tighter feeder availability, firmer basis near border yards, and continued reliance on domestic and Canadian sources.
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Set targets and use forwards, futures, or options to manage downside while preserving room for rallies.
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RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James breaks down the USDA’s newly unveiled plan to rebuild the US beef herd and the industry’s spectrum of responses to it.
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American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Bernt Nelson provides an updated outlook on the current U.S. cattle market.
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Sen. Roger Marshall explains which types of beef are imported into the United States, how there’s room for new imports, and logical reasons for current high prices.
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