NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best.
Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light.
With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
Higher energy activity likely keeps fuel and fertilizer costs elevated.
March 31, 2026 01:40 PM
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Building on the USDA’s recently released Grazing Action Plan, the agreement formalizes collaboration between the USDA, Forest Service, and Bureau of Land Management to ensure more efficient, transparent, and responsive grazing management across federal lands.
USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report shows increased supplies across all major commodities, with corn, soybeans, and wheat stocks all rising compared to a year ago. Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities discusses producer and market sentiment ahead of the key report.
March 31, 2026 12:17 PM
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Tony St. James and StoneX’s Arlan Suderman provide real-time insight on the USDA’s annual Prospective Plantings report, which shows a shifting acreage across commodities, with farmers planning to cut back on corn and wheat while increasing soybean and cotton acres.
March 31, 2026 12:15 PM
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The five-day auction drew up to 6,000 people and saw steady prices throughout the event
March 30, 2026 04:58 PM
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Cattle farmer Scott Porter, Kentucky Farm Bureau’s 2025 Farmer of the Year, discusses his commitment to mentorship and the importance of strengthening the future of agriculture.
March 30, 2026 03:22 PM
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