NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best.
Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light.
With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
U.S. agriculture entered the week with mixed signals as weather, logistics, and markets shaped early-year decisions. Here is a regional breakdown of domestic crop and livestock production for the week of Monday, Jan. 19, 2026.
January 19, 2026 11:40 AM
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While short-term volatility remains a risk, softer ocean freight rates in 2026 could improve export margins.
January 18, 2026 12:00 PM
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Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
January 18, 2026 07:00 AM
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RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey speaks with Texas’s Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez about USMCA renegotiation and its impact on U.S.–Mexico agriculture trade.
January 17, 2026 05:00 PM
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Rising rural business confidence supports local ag economies, but taxes and labor shortages remain key constraints.
January 17, 2026 02:00 PM
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The Midland County Junior Livestock Show in West Texas features a competitive steer showcase highlighting top-quality cattle and the accomplishments of driven youth exhibitors.
January 16, 2026 01:48 PM
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National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.
January 16, 2026 01:13 PM
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January 16, 2026 09:57 AM
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Soft equipment sales signal cautious farm spending as producers prioritize cash flow over expansion.
January 16, 2026 07:00 AM
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