NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best.
Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light.
With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
Strong demand for U.S. beef in Mexico is boosting exports, with buyers seeking both variety meats and high-quality cuts like Prime and Choice ribeye.
April 21, 2026 12:49 PM
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Rep. Dusty Johnson of South Dakota joined us to discuss rising input costs, proposed fertilizer legislation, and potential support for farmers navigating tight margins.
April 21, 2026 12:39 PM
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Shifts in energy demand will influence fuel, fertilizer, and input costs.
April 21, 2026 08:00 AM
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Jarrod Hardke with the University of Arkansas break down extreme drought conditions, shifting planting decisions, and the impact of rising input costs on Arkansas agriculture this season.
April 20, 2026 04:32 PM
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Oklahoma livestock economist Dr. Derrell Peel helps us break down the April Cattle-on-Feed report and what it signals for herd rebuilding, supplies and prices moving forward.
April 20, 2026 12:36 PM
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Patrick De Haan with GasBuddy joined us to discuss diesel price volatility and what farmers can expect as geopolitical tensions continue to impact energy markets.
April 20, 2026 11:26 AM
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