NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best.
Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light.
With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
Tight beef cow supplies and steady demand point to continued record-level cull cow prices in 2026.
January 15, 2026 11:23 AM
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Expanded school access to whole milk provides modest but reliable demand support for U.S. dairy producers.
January 15, 2026 10:14 AM
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The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 2026 agenda centers on labor stability, biosecurity, and economic resilience for family farms. Expanded DMC coverage improves risk protection for dairy operations facing tighter margins.
January 14, 2026 11:19 AM
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A high-stakes legal case in a South Dakota federal court concerning misleading country-of-origin labeling (MCOOL), such as “Product of the USA,” on food products, will significantly impact U.S. agricultural policy for years to come.
January 14, 2026 09:00 AM
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Agronomy experts explain why standing crop residue protects soil and reduces costs for crop growers, while shredding often yields little benefit at higher costs.
January 14, 2026 08:00 AM
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Secretary Rollins also met with specialty crop producers at a local strawberry farm to discuss workforce needs and the Trump Administration’s recent wins related to significantly cutting the cost of H-2A labor for California farmers.
January 13, 2026 03:25 PM
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