NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best.
Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light.
With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
Kerry Hartwig from Sukup Manufacturing previews the grain management solutions they plan to share with producers at the upcoming Commodity Classic in San Antonio.
February 19, 2026 02:36 PM
·
The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum highlights modest price support from tighter supplies across cotton, grains, dairy, livestock, and sugar into 2026.
February 19, 2026 01:48 PM
·
The Ranger Road Fire spreads from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Kansas as high winds and red flag conditions persist
February 19, 2026 01:01 PM
·
President Donald Trump signed an executive order this week to accelerate domestic production of phosphorus and glyphosate, signaling that farm input availability is now treated as a national security risk.
February 19, 2026 11:18 AM
·
The global rice surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.
February 19, 2026 08:00 AM
·
A weaker dollar supports export demand and may strengthen crop prices.
February 19, 2026 06:00 AM
·
