NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best.
Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light.
With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
China’s beef policy risk stems from domestic volatility, making export demand inherently unstable. Jake Charleston with Specialty Risk Insurance offers his perspective on cattle markets, risk management, and producer sentiment.
January 13, 2026 02:13 PM
·
USDA flash corn sales, Cattle on Feed and Inventory reports, and beef packer antitrust concerns dominate January agricultural market news.
January 13, 2026 01:53 PM
·
Larger grain stocks increase supply pressure, but strong fall disappearance — especially for corn and sorghum — suggests demand remains an important offset.
January 13, 2026 01:02 PM
·
Record corn and sorghum crops boost feed grain supplies, while reduced soybean and cotton production tighten outlooks for oilseeds and fiber markets.
January 13, 2026 12:53 PM
·
Food prices increased in December, but not as much as expected, according to the latest Consumer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics.
January 13, 2026 12:46 PM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us to provide analysis on the January WASDE report and expectations for grain markets going forward.
January 13, 2026 12:34 PM
·
