Trump Eyes New Tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Citing Water Treaty and Fertilizer Concerns

Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — We begin this morning with new details on President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Both Canada and Mexico are now in the crosshairs again this week.

In a social media post, President Trump calls on Mexico to release water he says is required under the 1944 Water Treaty, saying Mexico’s failure is harming farmers and ranchers in Texas. If Mexico does not comply by the end of the year, Trump says it will be subject to a 5 percent tariff.

On the Canadian side, Trump says steep tariffs could hit fertilizer supplies coming from our northern neighbor. More than half of Canada‘s potash supply goes to the U.S. Trump says he wants more fertilizer production here in the United States, but no timeline was given for that proposal.

U.S. food costs could ease as new tariff exceptions and trade agreements expand access to key imported goods.

According to Dr. Luis Ribera, Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies, the Trump administration’s recent actions target high-dependency products such as bananas, tea, coffee, cocoa, fruit juice, spices, tomatoes, and select fertilizers — many of which rely heavily on foreign supply.

Imports account for over 90 percent of U.S. consumption of bananas, tea, coffee, and cocoa, and more than 60 percent of imports of spices, tomatoes, and fruit juice. Canada leads in imports of fertilizers and cocoa products; Brazil dominates fruit juice and coffee; and Mexico supplies 85 percent of tomatoes.

The Trump Administration also announced new framework agreements with Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Argentina, removing reciprocal tariffs on most exports to the United States. Together, those nations shipped $7.45 billion in agricultural goods to U.S. buyers last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Rich Nelson, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc., joins us to break down what the U.S.-China trade agreement means for the ag economy.
Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
Cattle markets are collapsing this week, and analysts say that several factors are at play. Consumer beef prices also remain near all-time highs, threatening long-term demand.
Trade pacts with Malaysia and Cambodia unlock tariff-free and preferential lanes for key U.S. farm goods, expanding long-term demand in Southeast Asia.
The idea of buying more beef from Argentina does not sit well with much of farm country, raising some questions from analysts and producers.
Shaun Haney, Host of RealAg Radio, discusses President Trump’s move to halt trade talks with Canada and Mexico over a commercial about tariffs launched by the Government of Ontario.
Input costs are top of mind for farmers, as they contribute to higher prices and smaller profits.
The President’s trip to Asia this week follows a trade mission by the Iowa Soybean Association. Farmers say they were reminded that U.S. soybeans have an international reputation that can be easy to take for granted here at home.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

A leading Oklahoma veterinarian explains common symptoms of Equine Herpes Virus (EHV) and warns owners to remain vigilant because it can spread quickly among horses.
National FFA President Trey Myers joins Monday’s FFA Today to share his hopes and goals for the 2025-2026 year as he steps into this opportunity to lead and serve the next generation of agriculture.
Watch the special this Saturday at 6:00 PM Eastern on RFD-TV
Despite the need for swift action, many ag lawmakers and industry groups argue that farm aid alone will likely not be sufficient to help farmers without improved trade relations with China.
Fair market value shapes taxes, transitions, lending, and sales, making accurate valuation essential for long-term planning.
SDRP Stage 2 now helps producers recover shallow, uninsured losses from major 2023–2024 disasters, with streamlined sign-ups open through April 30.