Trump Eyes New Tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Citing Water Treaty and Fertilizer Concerns

Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — We begin this morning with new details on President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Both Canada and Mexico are now in the crosshairs again this week.

In a social media post, President Trump calls on Mexico to release water he says is required under the 1944 Water Treaty, saying Mexico’s failure is harming farmers and ranchers in Texas. If Mexico does not comply by the end of the year, Trump says it will be subject to a 5 percent tariff.

On the Canadian side, Trump says steep tariffs could hit fertilizer supplies coming from our northern neighbor. More than half of Canada‘s potash supply goes to the U.S. Trump says he wants more fertilizer production here in the United States, but no timeline was given for that proposal.

U.S. food costs could ease as new tariff exceptions and trade agreements expand access to key imported goods.

According to Dr. Luis Ribera, Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies, the Trump administration’s recent actions target high-dependency products such as bananas, tea, coffee, cocoa, fruit juice, spices, tomatoes, and select fertilizers — many of which rely heavily on foreign supply.

Imports account for over 90 percent of U.S. consumption of bananas, tea, coffee, and cocoa, and more than 60 percent of imports of spices, tomatoes, and fruit juice. Canada leads in imports of fertilizers and cocoa products; Brazil dominates fruit juice and coffee; and Mexico supplies 85 percent of tomatoes.

The Trump Administration also announced new framework agreements with Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Argentina, removing reciprocal tariffs on most exports to the United States. Together, those nations shipped $7.45 billion in agricultural goods to U.S. buyers last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
New World Screwworm cases in Mexico, including one within 200 miles of the U.S. border, are adding pressure to livestock markets and trade decisions.
Preserving equity through active risk management remains critical in a volatile, supply-driven market.
USDA data indicates that 13.7 percent of U.S. households experienced food insecurity in 2024, the highest rate since 2014, even as most households remained food secure.
Weather, Tight Supplies, and Planning Shape Farm Decisions
Bigger cows must wean proportionally heavier calves to justify higher ownership costs.
Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Alan Bjerga of the National Milk Producers Federation discusses the Dairy Margin Coverage program, recent improvements, and what producers need to know ahead of this week’s enrollment deadline.
William Lee Golden joined us to talk about his farming roots, his storied career with the Oak Ridge Boys, and how his new book and music continue to reflect the values that have guided him throughout his life and career.
Glyphosate and phosphorus are deemed critical to U.S. national defense, ensuring farmers’ access while signaling a shift toward regenerative agriculture. RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney shares insight on the Trump Administration’s move and what it could mean for U.S. farmers moving forward.
Claire Woeppel, Central Region Vice President with the National FFA Organization, joined us to discuss Alumni Day, the lasting impact of FFA supporters, and why honoring that legacy matters during National FFA Week.
UNL Extension’s Troy Walz discusses the Nebraska Ranch Practicum, where sessions are held, how producers can get involved, and what ranchers can gain from participating in the program.
The Ranger Road Fire in the Oklahoma Panhandle is now 65% contained after burning nearly 300,000 acres over the past week. Kevin Charleston of Specialty Risk Insurance Agency discusses wildfire recovery, livestock insurance considerations, and the importance of preparedness for producers across the Southern Plains.