Trump Eyes New Tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Citing Water Treaty and Fertilizer Concerns

Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — We begin this morning with new details on President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Both Canada and Mexico are now in the crosshairs again this week.

In a social media post, President Trump calls on Mexico to release water he says is required under the 1944 Water Treaty, saying Mexico’s failure is harming farmers and ranchers in Texas. If Mexico does not comply by the end of the year, Trump says it will be subject to a 5 percent tariff.

On the Canadian side, Trump says steep tariffs could hit fertilizer supplies coming from our northern neighbor. More than half of Canada‘s potash supply goes to the U.S. Trump says he wants more fertilizer production here in the United States, but no timeline was given for that proposal.

U.S. food costs could ease as new tariff exceptions and trade agreements expand access to key imported goods.

According to Dr. Luis Ribera, Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies, the Trump administration’s recent actions target high-dependency products such as bananas, tea, coffee, cocoa, fruit juice, spices, tomatoes, and select fertilizers — many of which rely heavily on foreign supply.

Imports account for over 90 percent of U.S. consumption of bananas, tea, coffee, and cocoa, and more than 60 percent of imports of spices, tomatoes, and fruit juice. Canada leads in imports of fertilizers and cocoa products; Brazil dominates fruit juice and coffee; and Mexico supplies 85 percent of tomatoes.

The Trump Administration also announced new framework agreements with Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Argentina, removing reciprocal tariffs on most exports to the United States. Together, those nations shipped $7.45 billion in agricultural goods to U.S. buyers last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
With record grain harvests and rising global ethanol demand, leaders across the ag and energy sectors are pushing for year-round E15 sales to mitigate the strain on grain trade.
Small, locally focused wineries are finding resilience through direct sales and regional loyalty rather than scale alone.
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) and Public Lands Council (PLC) are praising the passage of a bill to delist gray wolves as an endangered species by the U.S. House last week.
Recent USDA export sales data show China has been active in the U.S. market, but analysts tell RFD-TV News that the timing is a key clue.
Tight feeder supplies and lower placements indicate continued support for the cattle market, with regional impacts heightened in Texas by reduced feeder imports.
Jeff Johnston with CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange explains the growing role of Rural America in supporting the nation’s digital infrastructure.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Fertilizer still consumes an unusually large share of crop value.
Pollination costs remain volatile, raising planning risk for specialty crop producers.
Kerry Hartwig from Sukup Manufacturing previews the grain management solutions they plan to share with producers at the upcoming Commodity Classic in San Antonio.
Mason McGuire with the San Angelo Stock Show & Rodeo Association recaps this year’s event and looks ahead to the premium sale in April.
FBN co-founder Charles Baron previews the upcoming Farmer2Farmer event and how technology and AI are shaping the industry, offering growers practical insights and farmer-led strategies for modern agriculture.
The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum highlights modest price support from tighter supplies across cotton, grains, dairy, livestock, and sugar into 2026.