WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — U.S. soybean growers are watching closely after President Trump announced he will meet with China’s President Xi in four weeks, with soybeans expected to top the agenda. The news briefly lifted futures prices, but any U.S. export rebound faces steep competition after China booked record shipments from Brazil and Argentina in recent months.
Chinese customs data show that soybean imports reached 12.28 million metric tons in August, the largest volume on record for August, with Brazil supplying the bulk.
July imports also reached a record high, driven by strong shipments from Brazil. Argentina has gained ground as well, with Chinese buyers securing 20 cargoes—roughly 1.3 million tons—after Buenos Aires suspended its export tax. Bookings from Argentina and Uruguay for the September–May export window already exceed 2.4 million tons. By contrast, U.S. sales to China have stalled, with no new-crop bookings secured this fall amid ongoing tariffs.
The American Soybean Association has urged the White House to remove Chinese retaliatory duties and secure concrete purchase pledges, citing the financial strain on farms. Analysts say Trump’s push could revive discussions, but without tariff relief or binding purchase commitments, China may continue favoring cheaper South American supplies.
China’s Imports From U.S. Drop Sharper Than Brazil
China’s agricultural imports are down overall in 2025, but U.S. exports have suffered the steepest decline, according to ag economists at the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture.
Total Chinese imports of farm and related products fell 7.5 percent year-over-year through August, dropping from $157 billion in 2024 to $145 billion in 2025. The slowdown is even sharper in volume terms, with import quantities down nearly 12 percent, reflecting weaker demand rather than price-driven changes alone.
For U.S. farmers, the pullback has been particularly painful. Chinese imports of American agricultural products and related goods declined from $20 billion in 2024 to $14 billion in 2025, representing a loss of more than $ 6 billion, or 30 percent. The decline accelerated after March, highlighted by China’s absence from the U.S. soybean market this season.
Brazil also experienced lower sales, down 15 percent from the previous year, although its shipments rebounded mid-year and in some months surpassed 2024 levels. Economists note that Brazil’s recovery suggests stronger seasonal positioning and competitive advantages, while U.S. exporters face deeper challenges.
