AUBURN, Ala. (RFD-TV) – Turkey supplies for the 2025 holiday season are projected to be lower, setting the stage for firmer prices heading into Thanksgiving.
Poultry economists note that poultry placements have lagged throughout most of the year, with both toms and hens down compared to 2024. While July egg sets ticked up one percent year-over-year, overall placements remain light, meaning fewer fresh birds will be available this fall. Frozen stocks are also below historical averages, suggesting tight supplies for the November holiday.
Wholesale fresh turkey prices are already trending higher. Small lot prices moved into the $1.55 per pound range in early September, up from last year’s levels, while larger buyers have held near $1.40 per pound under contracted terms. Analysts expect further increases as holiday demand builds and cold storage inventories are drawn down.
Adding to supply pressure is Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). The U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that more than 195,000 turkeys have been lost to HPAI outbreaks since August, with wildfowl migration increasing the risk of further spread this fall. Following the loss of over 18 million birds to HPAI in recent years, turkey production has remained below average, and recovery has been slow.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers may benefit from higher turkey prices this holiday season, but risks from HPAI and limited poult placements could further strain the supply. Consumers should expect tighter availability and stronger prices for fresh and frozen birds at Thanksgiving.
Searches for “struggle meal” hit a record high in September, and #strugglemeals posts are climbing on Instagram and TikTok, reflecting a wave of budget-cooking content.
October 09, 2025 03:14 PM
·
Large animal veterinarian Dr. Rosalyn Biggs with Oklahoma State University warns producers may not be prepared for the real threat of New World Screwworm.
October 09, 2025 01:10 PM
·
Reliable, clearly graded middle meats still anchor demand; programs that deliver consistent eating quality and simple, confidence-building menus capture more repeat visits—and more value—back through the beef chain.
October 08, 2025 12:57 PM
·
Congress has just over a month of working days left for the year. Plan for uneven USDA service until funding is restored, and closely monitor Farm Bill talks, as avoiding Permanent Law before January 1 is the single biggest risk to markets and milk prices.
October 07, 2025 11:09 AM
·
Mexico’s tougher, two-step treatment and added checkpoints are catching cases before they can spread—good news for producers near the border.
October 07, 2025 10:55 AM
·
Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans, and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
October 06, 2025 11:56 AM
·
Approximately 42,000 birds were affected in the outbreak, officials said.
October 03, 2025 10:50 AM
·
Beef demand could be influencing other economic sectors, as consumers adjust spending habits to prioritize higher-priced beef products.
October 02, 2025 01:39 PM
·
AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.
October 02, 2025 01:25 PM
·
