AUBURN, Ala. (RFD-TV) – Turkey supplies for the 2025 holiday season are projected to be lower, setting the stage for firmer prices heading into Thanksgiving.
Poultry economists note that poultry placements have lagged throughout most of the year, with both toms and hens down compared to 2024. While July egg sets ticked up one percent year-over-year, overall placements remain light, meaning fewer fresh birds will be available this fall. Frozen stocks are also below historical averages, suggesting tight supplies for the November holiday.
Wholesale fresh turkey prices are already trending higher. Small lot prices moved into the $1.55 per pound range in early September, up from last year’s levels, while larger buyers have held near $1.40 per pound under contracted terms. Analysts expect further increases as holiday demand builds and cold storage inventories are drawn down.
Adding to supply pressure is Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). The U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that more than 195,000 turkeys have been lost to HPAI outbreaks since August, with wildfowl migration increasing the risk of further spread this fall. Following the loss of over 18 million birds to HPAI in recent years, turkey production has remained below average, and recovery has been slow.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers may benefit from higher turkey prices this holiday season, but risks from HPAI and limited poult placements could further strain the supply. Consumers should expect tighter availability and stronger prices for fresh and frozen birds at Thanksgiving.
NCBA CEO Colin Woodall says more conversations need to occur with stakeholders present surrounding President Trump’s proposal to lower consumer beef prices with Argentinian imports.
October 22, 2025 11:53 AM
·
Beef industry groups seem to agree — market-based pricing, not federal intervention, best supports rancher livelihoods and long-term beef supply stability.
October 21, 2025 11:22 AM
·
Cattle groups say additional imports would offer little relief for consumers but could erode rancher confidence as the industry begins to rebuild herds.
October 21, 2025 11:06 AM
·
The government shutdown has touched nearly every sector of the ag industry since it began, and now impacts are spilling over into dairy.
October 20, 2025 12:46 PM
·
Expect firm calf and fed-cattle prices — pair selective heifer retention with prudent hedging and liquidity to bridge rebuilding costs.
October 17, 2025 04:54 PM
·
Having a good read on fuel prices is a must during harvest, but one analyst says grain farmers should also be watching the crude oil markets.
October 17, 2025 01:26 PM
·
The new antitrust agreement between the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) aims to enforce antitrust laws and monitor market activity across the ag sector.
October 17, 2025 12:27 PM
·
Peel says Mexico has a much greater capability to expand its beef industry than it did 20 or 30 years ago in terms of its feeding and packing infrastructure.
October 16, 2025 03:59 PM
·
Support policies that keep U.S. biofuels at the table—marine demand could materially lift corn grind, crush margins, and rural jobs.
October 15, 2025 03:47 PM
·
