AUBURN, Ala. (RFD-TV) – Turkey supplies for the 2025 holiday season are projected to be lower, setting the stage for firmer prices heading into Thanksgiving.
Poultry economists note that poultry placements have lagged throughout most of the year, with both toms and hens down compared to 2024. While July egg sets ticked up one percent year-over-year, overall placements remain light, meaning fewer fresh birds will be available this fall. Frozen stocks are also below historical averages, suggesting tight supplies for the November holiday.
Wholesale fresh turkey prices are already trending higher. Small lot prices moved into the $1.55 per pound range in early September, up from last year’s levels, while larger buyers have held near $1.40 per pound under contracted terms. Analysts expect further increases as holiday demand builds and cold storage inventories are drawn down.
Adding to supply pressure is Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). The U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that more than 195,000 turkeys have been lost to HPAI outbreaks since August, with wildfowl migration increasing the risk of further spread this fall. Following the loss of over 18 million birds to HPAI in recent years, turkey production has remained below average, and recovery has been slow.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers may benefit from higher turkey prices this holiday season, but risks from HPAI and limited poult placements could further strain the supply. Consumers should expect tighter availability and stronger prices for fresh and frozen birds at Thanksgiving.
Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
November 21, 2025 10:30 AM
·
Row crop losses in 2025 are outpacing last year. With no disaster aid yet approved, many operations face a tough financial bridge to 2026 even as Farm Bill improvements remain a year away.
November 20, 2025 05:00 PM
·
Lower turkey and wheat prices helped ease Thanksgiving costs, but underlying farm-sector pressures remain significant.
November 19, 2025 11:06 AM
·
Cattle and hog supplies continue to tighten while dairy output expands, creating a split outlook in which red-meat prices soften and milk values come under pressure from larger supplies.
November 18, 2025 03:02 PM
·
Enjoy special programming as you gather to feast and give thanks with your family, featuring a re-cap of the 98th National FFA Convention, special airings of favorite music programs, and a “Lonesome Dove” marathon.
November 18, 2025 01:29 PM
Feel the earth move as beautiful Belgians, powerful Percherons, and classic Clydesdales thunder into the arena!
November 18, 2025 10:34 AM
Tariff relief may soften grocery prices, but it also intensifies competition for U.S. fruit, vegetable, and beef producers as cheaper imports regain market share.
November 17, 2025 01:20 PM
·
Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
November 17, 2025 01:17 PM
·
Retail competition and improved supplies are helping offset food inflation, pushing Thanksgiving meal costs modestly lower despite higher prices for beef, eggs, and dairy.
November 16, 2025 03:00 PM
·
