Tyson Signals Diverging Protein Outlook for 2026 as Global Meat Prices Dip

Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.

19297661-g.jpeg

Tyson Foods

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) Global meat prices edged lower in January, slipping four-tenths of a percent, according to new data from the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 123.9 points, down slightly from December, though still more than 6 percent higher than a year ago. Falling pork prices led the decline, as strong hog supplies in the European Union and softer global demand weighed on the market.

Poultry prices rose on stronger demand from Brazil, while beef and sheep meat remained largely stable. Overall, global food prices also dipped for a fifth straight month.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Tyson Foods reported mixed first-quarter results for fiscal 2026, with strong demand in chicken and prepared foods offset by ongoing pressure in beef. The company said shifting protein supplies and tighter cattle inventories will shape market conditions through the year.

Tyson posted first-quarter sales of $14.3 billion, up just over 5 percent from a year earlier, while adjusted operating income declined as beef losses weighed on overall margins. Management said chicken volumes posted their fifth straight quarter of year-over-year gains, reflecting continued consumer demand and market share expansion.

Looking ahead, Tyson expects beef production to fall by about 2 percent in 2026, leading to an operating loss of $250 million to $500 million for the segment as cattle supplies remain tight. Pork production is projected to increase by about 2 percent, with operating income expected to be between $250 million and $300 million. Chicken remains the strongest performer, with Tyson projecting operating income of $1.65 billion to $1.9 billion on modest production growth.

The company expects higher government data to show that overall U.S. protein output will rise by about a percent in 2026, while Tyson focuses on execution, cost control, and capital discipline.

Related Stories
Starting Monday, April 29, the USDA will require free avian flu (HPAI H5N1) testing on all dairy cattle before interstate travel. Positive cases must be directly reported to the USDA for tracing.
Meet Erica Sawatzke, a passionate sixth-generation turkey, corn, and soy FarmHER dedicated to preserving her family’s agricultural legacy at Oakdale Farms in Kensington, Minnesota.
After months of declining consumer egg prices, buyers could be facing a sharp increase in costs as prices surge upwards once again.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

ASFMRA’s Luke Worrell joined us to discuss farmland market trends, insights from the Illinois Land Values Conference, changing buyer and seller demographics, and the latest outlook on planting progress.
EPA’s approval gives citrus growers a new disease-fighting tool against greening at a time when production losses remain severe.
Higher input costs are making flexible marketing plans and updated break-even targets more important.
Data center growth can bring opportunities, but competition for land, water, and power will matter more in rural areas.
Rail rulings, export terminal access, and equipment rules are becoming bigger factors in grain shipping costs and reliability.
Higher ocean freight rates can add export cost pressure even when grain demand remains active.