Tyson Signals Diverging Protein Outlook for 2026 as Global Meat Prices Dip

Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.

19297661-g.jpeg

Tyson Foods

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) Global meat prices edged lower in January, slipping four-tenths of a percent, according to new data from the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 123.9 points, down slightly from December, though still more than 6 percent higher than a year ago. Falling pork prices led the decline, as strong hog supplies in the European Union and softer global demand weighed on the market.

Poultry prices rose on stronger demand from Brazil, while beef and sheep meat remained largely stable. Overall, global food prices also dipped for a fifth straight month.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Tyson Foods reported mixed first-quarter results for fiscal 2026, with strong demand in chicken and prepared foods offset by ongoing pressure in beef. The company said shifting protein supplies and tighter cattle inventories will shape market conditions through the year.

Tyson posted first-quarter sales of $14.3 billion, up just over 5 percent from a year earlier, while adjusted operating income declined as beef losses weighed on overall margins. Management said chicken volumes posted their fifth straight quarter of year-over-year gains, reflecting continued consumer demand and market share expansion.

Looking ahead, Tyson expects beef production to fall by about 2 percent in 2026, leading to an operating loss of $250 million to $500 million for the segment as cattle supplies remain tight. Pork production is projected to increase by about 2 percent, with operating income expected to be between $250 million and $300 million. Chicken remains the strongest performer, with Tyson projecting operating income of $1.65 billion to $1.9 billion on modest production growth.

The company expects higher government data to show that overall U.S. protein output will rise by about a percent in 2026, while Tyson focuses on execution, cost control, and capital discipline.

Related Stories
This show-stopper holiday main dish recipe will impress any guest lucky to sit at your table! The crunchy, salty pistachio crust on the succulent, slow-cooked ribeye roast pairs perfectly with the rich mushrooms, shallots, and red wine sauce.
In this go-to summer grilling recipe, Beef Back Ribs are marinated in an Asian-inspired marinade and then grilled to perfection.
A spicy sauce made with chili sauce and crushed red pepper flakes gives these Spicy Beef Back Ribs amazing flavor.
The key to success when cooking ribs is the low temperature and several hours of cooking time. However, this beef primal cut also contains popular tender, juicy cuts of meat like Ribeye Roast and Ribeye Steaks.
The Round Primal is home to lean, inexpensive cuts from the rump and hind legs. The muscles in this area are used for movement, so the beef is leaner and less tender. These cuts are often sold as roasts, steaks for marinating, or even Ground Beef.
One skillet, five ingredients and a few minutes are all you need to get this spiced up hash on the table!
The Sirloin is home to popular fabricated cuts but is first separated into the Top Sirloin Butt and Bottom Sirloin Butt. In the Top Sirloin, you’ll find steaks great for grilling, while the Bottom Sirloin provides cuts like Tri-Tip and Sirloin Bavette, which are good for roasting or grilling.
The brisket comes from the cattle’s breast, so it can be tougher because it is used for movement. An ideal cut for cooking low and slow on the barbecue or in a slow-cooker.
You’re gonna need a bigger pita. Season thin-sliced Sirloin with lemon pepper and skillet-cook, then pile it into hummus-filled pita pockets and top with your favorite veggies.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

A court decision that overturns Enlist labels would remove two major herbicides from use and reshape EPA’s future mitigation policies for other pesticides.
Rural businesses report softer sales, tougher hiring, and restrained investment — a backdrop that can pinch farm support capacity even if posted prices cool.
Friday’s release will be the first WASDE report in about two months, and early estimates indicate a corn surplus is still on the way.
Tyson expects another year of beef-segment losses due to tight cattle supplies, even as chicken, pork, and prepared foods strengthen overall margins.
Export strength is concentrated in corn and wheat, while soybeans and sorghum lag, keeping basis and logistics dynamics highly commodity-specific into late fall.
Pasture, Rangeland and Forage (PRF) interval selection—not just participation—drives protection levels as rainfall patterns become less predictable across the South.