Tyson Signals Diverging Protein Outlook for 2026 as Global Meat Prices Dip

Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.

19297661-g.jpeg

Tyson Foods

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) Global meat prices edged lower in January, slipping four-tenths of a percent, according to new data from the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 123.9 points, down slightly from December, though still more than 6 percent higher than a year ago. Falling pork prices led the decline, as strong hog supplies in the European Union and softer global demand weighed on the market.

Poultry prices rose on stronger demand from Brazil, while beef and sheep meat remained largely stable. Overall, global food prices also dipped for a fifth straight month.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Tyson Foods reported mixed first-quarter results for fiscal 2026, with strong demand in chicken and prepared foods offset by ongoing pressure in beef. The company said shifting protein supplies and tighter cattle inventories will shape market conditions through the year.

Tyson posted first-quarter sales of $14.3 billion, up just over 5 percent from a year earlier, while adjusted operating income declined as beef losses weighed on overall margins. Management said chicken volumes posted their fifth straight quarter of year-over-year gains, reflecting continued consumer demand and market share expansion.

Looking ahead, Tyson expects beef production to fall by about 2 percent in 2026, leading to an operating loss of $250 million to $500 million for the segment as cattle supplies remain tight. Pork production is projected to increase by about 2 percent, with operating income expected to be between $250 million and $300 million. Chicken remains the strongest performer, with Tyson projecting operating income of $1.65 billion to $1.9 billion on modest production growth.

The company expects higher government data to show that overall U.S. protein output will rise by about a percent in 2026, while Tyson focuses on execution, cost control, and capital discipline.

Related Stories
With the Farm Bill now in the Senate’s hands, industry groups say the stakes are high—and timely action could be critical for producers navigating a difficult economic environment.
Tennessee corn and soy farmer Josh Ogle joins us to discuss rapid planting progress in the state, improving moisture conditions, and early crop development challenges in the MidSouth region.
Beef is leading the decline as slaughter drops and supplies tighten.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Rising costs and prices are shifting acreage toward soybeans. Most fertilizer prices are up double digits from this time last year, with Urea seeing the largest gains.
Hiring may ease slightly, but labor shortages remain persistent.
Price volatility is driving shifts in demand and supply innovation.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains shifting global trade dynamics and what they could mean for agriculture and energy markets.
Rising diesel and energy costs are squeezing farmers and rural communities, increasing production expenses and raising concerns about consumer demand for beef even as U.S. meat exports regain the Australian market.
Rising input costs may squeeze margins and shift planting decisions. Scott Metzger with the American Soybean Association discusses fertilizer market pressures and what is at stake for farmers as planting season ramps up.