QUEEN CREEK, ARIZ. (RFD-TV NEWS) — U.S.-Canada trade tensions are creating continued uncertainty for farmers and agribusinesses as targeted U.S. bans on certain Canadian products take effect and negotiations between the two countries remain unresolved.
Shaun Haney, host of RealAg Radio, said the dispute has entered what he describes as a slower phase after months of escalating trade measures and negotiations.
“I would describe it kind of right now as a bit of a slow roll,” Haney said.
Trade Tensions Enter a Quieter Phase
The United States has imposed targeted bans on certain Canadian products, including alcoholic beverages and dairy products, as the broader trade dispute continues. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the measures followed continued Canadian retaliation against U.S. commerce.
Haney said the relative quiet does not necessarily mean the underlying issues have been resolved.
“It seems that President Trump and Prime Minister Carney are kind of comfortable with sort of the status quo,” Haney said.
He said that leaves companies and industries that rely on cross-border trade uncertain.
“Which sort of leaves people that have to import and export between the two countries kind of in limbo,” Haney said.
Canadian Agriculture Watching Closely
Haney said the U.S.-Canada trade relationship receives significantly more attention in Canada, where the dispute has become a major part of the national conversation.
He said the quieter tone could be positive if it reduces escalation between the two countries.
“Maybe that’s actually a good thing, and we’re not seeing an escalation in some of the verbal barbs going back and forth between the two leaders of both Canada and the U.S.,” Haney said.
But he said several major areas of disagreement remain, including automobiles, aluminum, steel and forestry.
For agriculture, Haney said the concern is less about some of those industries directly and more about what the broader trade dispute means for an agricultural sector that relies heavily on cross-border commerce.
Fertilizer and Energy Remain Key Concerns
Haney said some of the most immediate potential effects for U.S. farmers could show up in input markets.
“Honestly, if we go back just weeks ago, weather with you, I think some of the impact actually is on some of the input price side,” Haney said.
Fertilizer is one area receiving particular attention.
Haney pointed to the importance of Canadian potash to U.S. agriculture and said the dispute reminds us how closely integrated the two countries’ agricultural and energy markets are.
He also pointed to diesel and Canadian energy supplies as another example.
“There was a lot of talk about diesel export bans,” Haney said. “And one of the things I was really curious about when that was gaining a lot of steam is how would Canada be treated in that export ban?”
He said Midwestern refineries rely on Canadian energy products from Alberta.
North American Integration Runs Both Ways
Haney said the dispute has highlighted how dependent the United States and Canada are on one another across multiple industries.
“We continue to be reminded of this integration and how there’s this reliance,” he said.
Both countries have discussed diversifying their trade relationships, but Haney said the reality is that the economic relationship remains deeply connected.
“The integration is real, and it’s really here to stay,” Haney said. “It’s just, can it survive these two leaders who seem to be very comfortable with some of the tension at this point?”
USMCA Trust Becomes a Question
The broader issue could extend beyond individual tariffs and product bans to the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
USMCA remains in effect, and the United States is conducting a 2026 joint review of the agreement.
Haney said one challenge for countries negotiating with the United States is whether agreements will provide enough certainty for businesses to make long-term decisions.
“The trust factor here, which is important, any sort of business arrangement at the local and international level, that’s something that I think has really been challenged right now,” Haney said. “Is this just going to be ripped up?”
He said Canada and other trading partners are looking at whether agreements reached through negotiations will remain in place. Despite those concerns, Haney said he expects the United States and Canada ultimately to reach an agreement.
“I ultimately, I’m confident we’ll get, there’s going to be a deal,” Haney said.
He pointed to comments from former U.S. trade negotiator Greg Doud, who also expects an agreement, and said agriculture has a strong interest in maintaining the North American trade relationship.
“The agriculture industry honestly cannot afford for this, for the USMCA, to be torn up,” Haney said.
