WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. cattle numbers edged lower at the start of 2026, reinforcing that herd rebuilding remains slow and uneven despite improving price incentives. USDA’s January 1 Cattle Inventory Report shows modest declines across most categories, with beef cow numbers continuing to contract while milk cows expand.
All cattle and calves totaled 86.2 million head on January 1, down slightly from 86.5 million head a year earlier. Cows and heifers that have calved declined marginally to 37.2 million head. Beef cows fell 1 percent to 27.6 million head, while milk cows increased 2 percent to 9.57 million head, reflecting divergent trends between the beef and dairy sectors.
Heifer inventories signal limited momentum toward herd expansion. All heifers weighing 500 pounds and over totaled 18.0 million head, down 1 percent from a year ago. Beef replacement heifers rose 1 percent to 4.71 million head, but milk replacement heifers slipped slightly to 3.90 million head. Other heifers declined 2 percent, underscoring continued tightness in the replacement pipeline.
Market-ready supplies also remain constrained. Steers over 500 pounds declined 1 percent to 15.6 million head, while calves under 500 pounds dipped slightly to 13.3 million head. Total cattle on feed fell 3 percent to 13.8 million head, confirming tighter feedlot inventories entering 2026.
The calf crop continues to shrink. The 2025 calf crop was estimated at 32.9 million head, down 2 percent from 2024, with fewer calves born in both the first and second halves of the year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller cow numbers and a declining calf crop point to prolonged tight cattle supplies, limiting near-term herd rebuilding potential.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Tim and Sharyn Abbott of the Music City Celebration Sale recap the weekend’s premier auction, which drew top dairy breeders and buyers to Nashville again this year from across North America.
December 16, 2025 11:54 AM
·
The bill to once again allow schools to offer whole milk and 2% milk will now go to President Trump for approval.
December 16, 2025 11:41 AM
·
China’s pullback is hitting core U.S. commodities hard, reshaping export expectations for soybeans, cotton, grains, and livestock.
December 16, 2025 07:00 AM
·
Fertilizer markets face uncertainty after President Trump raised the possibility of tariffs on Canadian imports, with analysts warning of supply and pricing risks. Josh Linville with StoneX provides a fertilizer industry outlook.
December 15, 2025 01:35 PM
·
Regional differences indicate that family ownership is universal, but farm structure and commodity mix determine the extent to which these operations drive agricultural output.
December 15, 2025 01:03 PM
·
Frigid winter weather and rapid temperature swings have cattle markets watching closely for livestock stress, as analysts say fluctuations pose the greatest risk.
December 15, 2025 12:33 PM
·
A new study found that retaining the EPA’s half-RIN credit protects soybean demand, farm income, and crushing-sector strength while preserving biofuel market flexibility.
December 15, 2025 12:15 PM
·
The U.S. has a bountiful corn supply, but markets are waiting for the January WASDE Report, which will include updated yield estimates.
December 15, 2025 11:34 AM
·
Freight Softens as Producers Plan 2026 Budgets Nationwide
December 15, 2025 10:48 AM
·
