WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. cattle numbers edged lower at the start of 2026, reinforcing that herd rebuilding remains slow and uneven despite improving price incentives. USDA’s January 1 Cattle Inventory Report shows modest declines across most categories, with beef cow numbers continuing to contract while milk cows expand.
All cattle and calves totaled 86.2 million head on January 1, down slightly from 86.5 million head a year earlier. Cows and heifers that have calved declined marginally to 37.2 million head. Beef cows fell 1 percent to 27.6 million head, while milk cows increased 2 percent to 9.57 million head, reflecting divergent trends between the beef and dairy sectors.
Heifer inventories signal limited momentum toward herd expansion. All heifers weighing 500 pounds and over totaled 18.0 million head, down 1 percent from a year ago. Beef replacement heifers rose 1 percent to 4.71 million head, but milk replacement heifers slipped slightly to 3.90 million head. Other heifers declined 2 percent, underscoring continued tightness in the replacement pipeline.
Market-ready supplies also remain constrained. Steers over 500 pounds declined 1 percent to 15.6 million head, while calves under 500 pounds dipped slightly to 13.3 million head. Total cattle on feed fell 3 percent to 13.8 million head, confirming tighter feedlot inventories entering 2026.
The calf crop continues to shrink. The 2025 calf crop was estimated at 32.9 million head, down 2 percent from 2024, with fewer calves born in both the first and second halves of the year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller cow numbers and a declining calf crop point to prolonged tight cattle supplies, limiting near-term herd rebuilding potential.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Alan Bjerga with the National Milk Producers Federation joined us to review new policies and regulations supporting the dairy industry and what they mean for the year ahead.
January 20, 2026 03:25 PM
·
Despite rising costs and growing food insecurity, meat demand remained strong in 2025 as higher-income consumers offset cutbacks elsewhere. Economists break down the K-shaped economy, upcoming USDA cattle reports, livestock production outlooks, and renewed debate over beef imports and country-of-origin labeling heading into 2026.
January 20, 2026 02:47 PM
·
The Surface Transportation Board rejects the proposed Norfolk Southern–Union Pacific merger, prompting concerns from agricultural shippers about rail consolidation, service reliability, and higher transportation costs.
January 20, 2026 12:25 PM
·
Congressional leaders signal momentum toward expanded, targeted farm aid to help producers manage losses and cash-flow stress in 2026.
January 20, 2026 11:48 AM
·
Livestock strength is carrying the farm economy, while crop margins remain tight and increasingly dependent on risk management and financial discipline.
January 19, 2026 05:00 PM
·
Strong balance sheets still matter, but liquidity, planning, and lender relationships are critical as ag credit tightens, according to analysis from AgAmerica Lending.
January 19, 2026 03:00 PM
·
Protein-driven dairy growth is boosting beef supply potential, creating an opening to support rural jobs and ground beef availability.
January 19, 2026 01:00 PM
·
New Resource Makes It Easier for People to Access Data on Rural Development funded Projects in Rural Communities
January 19, 2026 11:50 AM
U.S. agriculture entered the week with mixed signals as weather, logistics, and markets shaped early-year decisions. Here is a regional breakdown of domestic crop and livestock production for the week of Monday, Jan. 19, 2026.
January 19, 2026 11:40 AM
·
