U.S. Farm Economy Shows Strength, Growing Divergence

Livestock strength is carrying the farm economy, while crop margins remain tight and increasingly dependent on risk management and financial discipline.

cute cows_Alex Templeton_FarmHER RanchHER Season &

RanchHER Alex Templeton (FarmHER + RanchHER Season 7, Ep. 10)

FarmHER, Inc.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. agriculture entered 2026 with mixed financial signals, as strong livestock markets continue to offset pressure on crop producers, according to the latest Agricultural Financial Update from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

The report shows overall economic resilience supporting agriculture, but with widening gaps across industry sectors. Cattle prices remained a standout, supported by tight supplies, strong calf values, and lower feed costs, while dairy margins benefited earlier from herd growth and improved price-to-feed ratios. Livestock remains the farm economy’s brightest spot.

Row crop producers face a tougher outlook. Elevated U.S. and global supplies of corn and soybeans have weighed on prices, pushing crop profit margins close to breakeven. The analysis indicates that insurance programs and ad hoc government payments helped stabilize incomes in 2024 and 2025, but those supports are expected to provide only modest relief in 2026.

Financial stress remains contained but is building. Farm loan delinquency rates remain low, yet survey data indicate tightening credit conditions, higher loan demand, and pressure on renter-operators without land equity. Farmland values and cash rents have remained firm, helping keep overall leverage steady despite rising debt.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Livestock strength is carrying the farm economy, while crop margins remain tight and increasingly dependent on risk management and financial discipline.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Related Stories
High milk production and soft retail demand are squeezing prices and margins — making careful feed and risk management essential through year-end.
Market analyst and friend of the show, Shawn Hackett, says Brazil’s shifting use of crops for biofuel production is a significant factor.
Texas A&M livestock economist Dr. David Anderson joins Tony St. James to discuss the geopolitical tensions and U.S.-Mexico border closure that are leading to sharp swings in the cattle market.
Arizona producers are proving that desert farming and water conservation can coexist through technology, reuse, and efficiency — reinforcing both food security and environmental stewardship.
Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses key outcomes from the U.S.-China trade agreement and the benefits of expanding trade across Southeast Asia.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

CME Group’s Fred Seamon joins us to break down the drop in farmer sentiment, discuss the role of input costs and global factors, and share his outlook for the ag economy ahead.
Cotton margins improved slightly, even as fertilizer and fuel costs rose due to the Strait of Hormuz disruption linked to the Iran war.
Flour milling demand stayed generally steady, but total wheat grind remained slightly softer year over year.
U.S. export inspections turned in another strong corn week.
The latest developments point to shifting export routes, higher congestion risk, and continuing cost pressure for grain, fertilizer, and energy shipments.
Tyson is still reshaping its beef footprint.