NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — On Capitol Hill, in budget hearings with Congress on Friday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer pointed to tariff policy as a tool to reduce reliance on China and support domestic industries.
“The president’s tariff program again, which really extends back to his first term, when he first imposed tariffs on China,” Greer told Congress on Thursday. “President Biden kept them in place. Our trade deficit in goods with China—including manufactured goods and everything else went down by $130 billion last year—that’s a pretty incredible decrease, and at the same time, it was going down with other countries, too. So, we pay attention to trans-shipment and all that, but overall, we’re going in the right direction. We’re diversifying from China, and we’re supporting domestic manufacturing and protecting it with tariffs where we need to.”
Greer says recent data signal positive momentum in the U.S. economy, including record export levels, gains in manufacturing wages, and job growth.
However, in the soybean sector, a surge in supplies headed to China could put pressure on global prices. Shipments from the U.S. and Brazil have climbed sharply in recent months, driven by a record Brazilian harvest. Some delays at Chinese ports have slowed deliveries, but those volumes are expected to move through soon, adding more supply to the market. That could weigh on bean, meal, and oil prices.
For U.S. producers, it may limit export opportunities and cap price rallies during the growing season.
Economists caution that sorghum markets are increasingly at risk of oversupply due to uncertain export demand, especially from China. While domestic demand is rising as more sorghum is used for ethanol production, this growth mostly compensates for declining exports instead of generating additional demand.
China Soybean Supply Surge Expected to Pressure Prices
A surge in soybean supplies headed to China this spring is expected to pressure global prices, creating potential headwinds for U.S. producers. Analysis from Dr. Fred Gale, retired USDA economist and China agriculture specialist, points to a sharp increase in arrivals beginning in May.
Brazil’s record soybean harvest is driving export volumes higher, with shipments to China and other destinations accelerating despite recent inspection delays. Combined U.S. and Brazilian shipments to China climbed from about 147 million bushels in January to roughly 441 million bushels in March, signaling a wave of supply still in transit.
Chinese import inspections have slowed deliveries, but those delays are expected to shift large volumes into the market at once. Monthly arrivals could reach more than 404 million bushels by May, significantly increasing available supply.
That influx is expected to weigh on soybean meal and oil prices, with crush margins already near break-even. At the same time, weak hog margins in China are limiting growth in feed demand, further pressuring the outlook.
For U.S. agriculture, the timing of this supply surge could cap export opportunities and limit price rallies during the growing season.
Sorghum Oversupply Risk Grows Without Strong China Demand
Sorghum markets are facing growing oversupply risks as export demand — particularly from China — remains uncertain, according to Terrain economist Bree Baatz.
U.S. farmers intend to plant 6.12 million acres of sorghum in 2026, down 8% from last year, but shifting conditions could still push acreage higher. Dry weather in the Plains and lower fertilizer requirements compared to corn may encourage additional sorghum planting, increasing supply beyond current projections.
Demand remains the key concern. China accounts for more than half of U.S. sorghum exports, and without a pickup in second-quarter buying, ending stocks are expected to rise. Analysts estimate stocks could increase by another 25 million bushels, adding pressure to prices and widening basis levels.
Global competition is also intensifying. Brazil, Argentina, and Australia are all expanding sorghum production, with Brazil in particular positioned to grow exports after gaining access to Chinese markets.
Domestic demand is increasing, with more sorghum moving into ethanol production, but that growth is largely offsetting weaker exports rather than creating new demand.
