U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Ripples Through Agriculture

From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. trade policy is facing mounting scrutiny at home and abroad, as President Donald Trump’s latest initiatives spark backlash from key allies, land before the Supreme Court, and push key markets like China to increase both grain and livestock production to make up for key imports — the uncertainty continues to ripple through global agricultural markets as farmers navigate another volatile year.

President Trump’s Push to Acquire Greenland

Coverage continues now on President Trump’s trade policy. More tariffs could be on the way for several European nations soon. It stems from President Trump’s desire to acquire Greenland. Trump claims acquiring the country, which is currently an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, is a matter of U.S. national security.

But that plan is not sitting well with several key U.S. trade partners across Europe. Leaders at the European Union (EU) responded, saying a “new line has been crossed.”

In a post on social media, President Trump this weekend said he would increase retaliatory tariffs by another 10 percent on countries opposing that acquisition, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Denmark. The White House stands firm, saying Greenland is needed to bolster U.S. national security.

Will the Supreme Court Deliver a Ruling on Tariffs?

The Supreme Court could rule on the president’s tariff plan any day now, with several opinions expected this morning. Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he still believes tariffs are a useful tool for American trade policy.

“If it’s used in a way selectively, in a targeted way that makes sense, if it’s to get something, to accomplish an American objective,” Sen. Thune said. “In some cases, it might be reciprocity with another country that hasn’t been treating us fairly when it comes to trade; there are circumstances in which those tariffs make sense.”

On the other side of the aisle, the President’s tariff policy has not been well-received. House Ag Committee Ranking Member, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN), recently unveiled a new relief plan for farmers dealing with higher costs, which she says is the result of the tariff policy.

“Family farmers are going out of business because of Trump’s ill-conceived trade wars,” Rep. Craig said. “Working people are paying more every day at the grocery store, thanks to his across-the-board tariffs.”

Craig released a preview of her Farm and Family Relief Act late last week, and it could be officially filed in the coming days. Craig says the bill will bring economic relief to farmers and low-income families. The bill designates $29 billion in aid to farmers struggling with high input costs. That would be in addition to the $12 billion in farm aid allocated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) through the Farmer Bridge Aid Program.

The White House continues to defend its tariff policy, saying it has helped secure several trade deals that benefit farmers. We will continue to monitor developments from the Supreme Court on Market Day Report and the Rural Evening News as the ag community waits for a ruling.

China Sets Records as Farm Prices Slide Lower

China posted record meat and grain production in 2025, but weaker domestic demand pushed farm prices lower and reduced most agricultural imports, according to analysis from Dr. Fred Gale, economist for China’s agricultural markets. The data point to growing output capacity even as economic conditions limited price support for farmers.

Preliminary government figures show total meat production rose 4.2 percent, topping 100 million metric tons for the first time, led by gains in pork, poultry, and beef. Grain output increased 1.2 percent to 714.9 million metric tons, while cotton production also surged. Soybeans were the major exception in trade flows, with imports rising 6.5 percent to nearly 112 million metric tons, supplying more than 80 percent of domestic needs.

Other imports declined sharply. China cut wheat, corn, cotton, and meat imports, with total agricultural imports down 3.6 percent year over year. Beef imports still accounted for roughly one-quarter of supplies, helping explain recent safeguard tariffs.

Despite strong output, prices weakened. Hog prices fell more than 11 percent for the year, grain prices dropped 2.6 percent, and egg prices declined sharply as production outpaced consumption. Gale notes the price pressure reflects an economy growing more slowly beneath the headline 5 percent GDP figure.

Related Stories
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer shares his perspective on the uncertain outlook of federal farm relief and the Farm Bill, which may not materialize until the government shutdown ends.
AFBF Associate Economist Samantha Ayoub joins us to dive into H-2A visa program changes and what can be done to ease the pressure on producers.
As the government shutdown pushes the farm economy closer to the brink, Sens. Grassley and Ernst of Iowa are raising their voices for agriculture.
U.S. Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report to share why Ames is uniquely positioned to support expanded USDA operations.
Iowa land values dropped 3% year-over-year. Sen. Chuck Grassley said this discomforting pattern is a harbinger of crisis for farmers, as seen in the 1980s.
Jed Bower, the incoming president of the National Corn Growers Association, joined us for his sector’s perspective on the ongoing government shutdown.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week said an announcement would be made on Tuesday. However, that self-imposed deadline has now passed.
Plan for a cooler global trade market in 2026 with tighter margins on exports, potential rate shifts, and premiums for reliable deliveries into Asian and African growth markets.

Marion is a digital content manager for RFD-TV and The Cowboy Channel. She started working for Rural Media Group in May 2022, adding a decade of experience in the digital side of broadcast media and some cooking experience to the team.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

She joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to share more about her new cookbook, “Dishes and Devotions: Make Every Day Delicious,” which recently hit #1 in Amazon’s Cajun & Creole Cooking category.
$11 billion will go to row-crop farmers immediately, with $1 billion set aside for specialty crops.
Eastern Region VP Joey Nowotny of Delaware joins us on FFA Today to talk about his new leadership role and an exciting year ahead for the National FFA Organization.
Cattle imports from Mexico remain stalled amid the New World screwworm outbreak. At the same time, Tyson closures add pressure on Nebraska producers and markets ahead of the USDA’s upcoming Cattle on Feed Report.
Georgia has regained its HPAI-free status after a swift response to October’s detection. Commissioner Tyler Harper urges producers to stay vigilant and maintain biosecurity.
While this month’s WASDE report will not include updated figures on U.S. crop size, officials say it will offer a clearer picture of crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.