NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Cattle markets are collapsing this week, and analysts say that several factors are at play. There have been discussions of resuming cattle imports from Mexico following the outbreak of New World Screwworm just south of the U.S.-Mexico border.
However, it is the talk of additional beef imports from Argentina that is causing a stir. According to Greg McBride, a commodity broker with Allendale, there is not much they can do until more information comes down.
“We don’t know what we don’t know, so we just kind of stake the status quo,” McBride said. “It obviously hit the markets pretty hard on Friday when the rumor came out, and we’ve kind of stabilized ever since. But there isn’t anything that really has changed. We don’t know when this would start. We don’t know how much of this beef would be brought in. It obviously ups the competition for U.S. beef.”
McBride says he does not see a reason for panic just yet. Numbers from the USDA show that, right now, beef from Argentina accounts for only two percent of the U.S. beef supply.
While the President suggests more beef from Argentina, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has its own plan to grow the herd and lower consumer prices. That plan includes a big push for country-of-origin labeling. But the South Dakota Cattlemen’s Association does not believe it will have much of an impact.
“At the top of the priority list, when it comes to buying beef and country of origin, it is down a long way for the average consumer,” said x. “Of course, if you’re not the average consumer, you have plenty of opportunities to buy a niche product that you know where it came from. And so, our members have always recognized that that choice is there and that slapping a label on, as far as where it comes from, really isn’t going to change the demand.”
USDA says in January, it will begin enforcing all “Product of the U.S.A.” labels, and only beef that is born, raised, and slaughtered in the United States will be eligible for that labeling.
Food prices are soaring past average inflation rates, but data show this did not happen overnight. USDA data shows that food prices rose nearly 24 percent between 2020 and 2024.
Beef prices reached a record high back in August, and research by Rabobank shows that the rise occurred despite a seven-percent dip in cattle prices since the beginning of the year. Pork prices are also up since last year, driven by strong demand.
However, restaurant traffic is also slowing, with researchers finding nine straight quarters of decline. That is a big problem for beef, considering Cargill’s “State of Steak” report, which found that beef consumers are most likely to continue paying higher prices for beef in restaurants where consistency is king.
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