NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD News) — Urea prices have retreated from recent highs, offering some relief for growers, but phosphate markets remain exposed to serious global supply risks. StoneX fertilizer analyst Josh Linville says nearby New Orleans urea values have fallen back after reaching $440 per ton.
August urea recently traded near $380 after starting from a low around $340. India’s latest tender attracted offers well above its requested volume, while increased Chinese exports could add supply during the second half of 2026.
Brazil remains a potential source of renewed urea demand. Imports are running behind recent averages, and restrictions on Chinese ammonium sulfate exports could push Brazilian buyers toward additional urea purchases.
Phosphate carries greater risk. Chinese exports remain sharply reduced, Saudi shipments are constrained, and sulfur availability has tightened because of disruptions involving the Strait of Hormuz and Russia. U.S. supplies may cover weak fall demand.
Potash appears comparatively stable, while UAN and ammonia producers remain comfortable with existing sales. Linville advises growers to watch pricing opportunities carefully rather than assume fertilizer costs will continue falling.
