WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer consumption in the United States has fallen by nearly 10 percent each year since 2021, according to new data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS).
The USDA ERS report, “Drivers of Fertilizer Markets: Supply, Demand and Prices” (PDF Version), indicates that the drop is attributed to market impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as rising energy prices.
Potash has seen the most significant decline, falling 11 percent over the same five-year period.
“The new report [...] spells it out: Global production for fertilizer increased by 27.4% and global fertilizer trade volumes jumped by 18.8% between 2006 and 2022 — but the U.S. share of global production, imports, and exports each declined by 25% or more over the same period,” explain analysts at the Michigan Farm Bureau.
Farm Inputs Are Soaring, With Fertilizer and Energy Leading
And while fertilizer prices have risen recently, they remain below the historic highs we saw in 2022. Economists at the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) have been monitoring the situation since then and say there are two main drivers at present.
“The big drivers are energy costs, mainly because nitrogen fertilizers rely on natural gas, and so other countries have had decreased production due to conflict, as well as geopolitical disputes overall,” explained Faith Parum with AFBF. “There will just, again, be that uncertainty, as you know, the world continues to move around through these geopolitical disruptions.”
The AFBF said input costs remain challenging for farmers, and it is essential to prepare for any potential surprises.
Lawmakers, including Senate Ag Committee members, Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Joni Ernst (R-IA), recently reintroduced The Fertilizer Act, bipartisan legislation aimed at addressing the soaring cost of fertilizer, one of the most significant expenses for U.S. farmers, according to a press release published by Sen. Grassley’s office on Tuesday.
“Fertilizer is one of the ag industry’s biggest inputs, and family farmers across the nation are severely hurting right now due to its high cost,” said Grassley, who sits on the Senate Agriculture Committee, along with bill co-sponsor, Sen. Ernst.
The bill has bipartisan backing, with Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) signing on as a cosponsor. It is supported by a broad coalition of farm groups, including the National Farmers Union (NFU) and the Iowa Corn Growers Association (ICGA).
“Farmers are getting squeezed on all sides by high input costs, corporate consolidation, and unfair markets; fertilizer is a major part of that pressure,” said NFU President Rob Larew. “Studies like this increase transparency, providing a clearer picture of what’s driving price and supply. We thank Senators Grassley and Baldwin for introducing this legislation and recognizing that accountability and competition in farm inputs are essential if family farmers and ranchers are going to have a fair shot in the marketplace.”
Farm leaders said the legislation would shine a needed spotlight on an industry where fertilizer costs are projected to account for 36 percent of operating expenses for corn growers in 2025.
“Fertilizer prices have continued to increase, putting pressure on Iowa corn farmers who are already faced with low corn prices and increased input costs, making profit margins slim or even nonexistent,” said Mark Mueller, ICGA President and farmer from Waverly, Iowa. “We need to assess the fertilizer industry to better understand pricing practices, tariffs, and the exertion of market power by companies within the industry.”
Ag industry groups also praised the bill’s attention to new technologies such as biologicals that could help farmers cut costs, improve efficiency, and build soil health.
Ag Groups Ask for Fertilizer “Critical Minerals” List Expansion
Agriculture groups are also urging the Trump Administration to expand its list of fertilizer “critical minerals.” More than 60 lawmakers are backing the push, saying farmers need a steadier, more affordable supply to produce the nation’s food, fuel, and fiber.
In comments to the U.S. Geological Survey, farm groups praised the addition of potash but warned that the omission of phosphates is a big mistake. They argue that fertilizer and herbicide supplies are too vulnerable to foreign disruptions and price fluctuations, citing China’s export bans and hurricane-related shortages.
Although the U.S. has not imported any fertilizer from China in recent years, experts caution that China’s trade policies could still influence global prices.
Trump’s tariff strategy had some impact, an expert with StoneX explained, but it was China’s own export strategy that may be having a bigger impact, shifting global supply chains and keeping more products at home.
“Since 2022, China, when you look at them, they would normally export about 5-5.5 million tons of Urea per year,” Stone X Vice President Josh Linville told RFD-TV. “That started to fall off as we got into that early ’22 cycle when China started to step in. But it’s picked up the pace since 2024. Last year, their exports totaled just over a quarter-million tons. Not a single month. Total for the entire calendar year. Q-1 2025, those exports have fallen shy of 4,000 tons. We’re no longer measuring Chinese exports in vessels. We’re measuring them in containers.”
Linville said China’s shakeup led to lower prices for Chinese buyers and higher costs.
