USDA Forecasts Record U.S. Corn Crop, Higher Ending Stocks in January WASDE Report

Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report (Web, PDF Version) projects significantly larger supplies for several key crops in the 2025-26 marketing year, driven by strong production estimates and slower demand growth.

The USDA raised its forecast for U.S. corn production to 17.0 billion bushels, a record total supported by higher yields and increased harvested acreage. With total use rising less than supply, ending stocks climbed to 2.227 billion bushels, above most market expectations.

Soybean output was also adjusted upward slightly, lifting U.S. ending stocks to about 350 million bushels as exports were trimmed.

Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.

For wheat, modest increases in supply and reduced domestic use pushed ending stocks higher as well.

The report’s outlook for rice showed lower U.S. supplies and reduced ending stocks, while global estimates pointed to larger total world inventories of several grains and oilseeds.

Related Stories
Farmers will soon be asked to help shape some of USDA’s most closely watched crop and inventory reports.
China says some summit agreements are still preliminary, so export sales reports will be the proof.
For farm country, that caution can mean higher costs, slower service, and less local investment.
The latest USDA price projections are raising new questions about crop payments and ARC calculations.
The Byrum family says bringing the next generation back to the farm is helping strengthen both the operation and the family bond.
Dr. Derrell Peel says long-term price relief will depend more on rebuilding the U.S. cattle herd than increasing imports.

Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.