USDA Forecasts Record U.S. Corn Crop, Higher Ending Stocks in January WASDE Report

Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report (Web, PDF Version) projects significantly larger supplies for several key crops in the 2025-26 marketing year, driven by strong production estimates and slower demand growth.

The USDA raised its forecast for U.S. corn production to 17.0 billion bushels, a record total supported by higher yields and increased harvested acreage. With total use rising less than supply, ending stocks climbed to 2.227 billion bushels, above most market expectations.

Soybean output was also adjusted upward slightly, lifting U.S. ending stocks to about 350 million bushels as exports were trimmed.

Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.

For wheat, modest increases in supply and reduced domestic use pushed ending stocks higher as well.

The report’s outlook for rice showed lower U.S. supplies and reduced ending stocks, while global estimates pointed to larger total world inventories of several grains and oilseeds.

Related Stories
Surging energy markets are quickly becoming a cost story for U.S. agriculture as crude oil climbs on supply fears tied to the Middle East conflict.
Logistics remain firm, but freight costs continue to rise.
Strong corn demand and cotton shipments support export outlook.
Fertilizer investigation may impact input costs and margins.
The American Coalition for Ethanol reacts as the Farm Bill heads to a full House vote — while ethanol expansion, including year-round E15, is left out — as well as the USDA’s pursuit of global markets for ethanol.
Big oils-and-fats volumes can support crush demand, but fuel markets can quickly tighten supplies.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney shares insight into Canada’s trade push in Mexico and what it could signal for agriculture and the USMCA moving forward.
Lawmakers request information from CEO Scott Stump over sponsorship concerns and potential implications for the organization’s nonprofit status.
Roger McEowen with the Washburn School of Law reviews key highlights from the House Agriculture Committee’s latest farm bill proposal.
Ethanol output is improving, but weak domestic demand and export headwinds temper optimism about corn demand. Renewable Fuels Association President & CEO Geoff Cooper discusses the latest developments on Federal approval of year-round E15.
The National Farm Machinery Show is underway in Louisville, Kentucky, bringing together the latest in agricultural equipment, technology, and innovation. Here are some highlights from the trade show floor so far!
Ag Committee Chairman Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson has referred to the proposal as “Farm Bill 2.0.”
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.