WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows livestock markets experiencing mixed momentum, as cattle and hog production move lower while dairy output continues to grow.
The update gives producers an early view of how slaughter trends, disease pressures, and product prices may shape margins over the next year. Beef and cattle markets see the most signs of tightening, hog supplies are slipping as slaughter slows, and dairy faces downward pressure from larger milk volumes.
For cattle, the USDA lowered 2025 beef production on reduced steer and heifer slaughter and lighter weights, even though cow and bull slaughter is expected to rise. Prices for the fourth quarter of 2025 were revised down and are forecast to remain soft into early 2026. The agency also lowered 2026 beef output as the slower fed-cattle marketings are expected to extend into next year.
Hog markets show similar signs of tightening: USDA reduced 2025 pork production due to a slower slaughter pace that outweighs heavier carcass weights. Updated inventory data also point to smaller hog supplies in 2026, prompting the USDA to raise its 2026 hog price outlook even as late-2025 prices ease.
Dairy markets are moving in the opposite direction. USDA raised milk production forecasts for both 2025 and 2026 on higher cow inventories and stronger productivity. Larger milk supplies are pushing product prices lower — particularly butter, cheese, and nonfat dry milk — leading to reduced Class III and Class IV values. The all-milk price is now forecast at $21.05/cwt for 2025 and $19.25/cwt for 2026. Dairy exports, however, were increased due to competitive butter, cheese, and whey markets.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Cattle and hog supplies continue to tighten while dairy output expands, creating a split outlook in which red-meat prices soften and milk values come under pressure from larger supplies.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Hughes shares how he’s preparing for the competition, his partnership with Bass Fishing Hall of Famer Mark Davis, and his journey from cattle ranching to professional bass fishing.
October 14, 2025 04:39 PM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to share insight into what’s happening on the ground and in the markets.
October 14, 2025 04:30 PM
·
Cottage cheese sales are on the rise across the U.S., and industry leaders believe interest on social media is contributing to the surge in consumer demand.
October 14, 2025 04:16 PM
·
“USDA can no longer keep wasting its time and personnel to deploy Commissioner Miller’s infamous traps, which USDA has deployed, tested, and has proven ineffective.”
October 14, 2025 01:19 PM
·
Even in this strong market, some beef producers are leaving money on the table by not following proven marketing practices.
October 14, 2025 12:03 PM
·
New U.S. fees on Chinese-owned and built ships took effect overnight, marking the latest escalation in maritime trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
October 14, 2025 11:33 AM
·
President Trump is expected to press Argentina to take a tougher stance on China in exchange for political and economic support.
October 14, 2025 11:12 AM
·
Tammi Arender takes us to 3 Board Farm to meet some first-generation farmers who took a leap of faith and, in the process, found a new purpose.
October 13, 2025 02:11 PM
·
“Good flies? Is that like a good fire ant?” Miller said. “I don’t know what a good fly is. I don’t know if they’re afraid to kill house flies or stable flies, but I’m ready to kill the screwworm fly.”
October 13, 2025 01:28 PM
·
