WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — USDA’s first full 2026/27 outlook points to tighter supplies for several major farm commodities, with higher projected prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, cattle, and milk. The May WASDE sets the first new-crop baseline while planting is still underway, so weather and acreage changes can still shift the numbers.
Corn production is projected at 16.0 billion bushels, down 6 percent from last year on fewer acres and a 183-bushel trend yield. Exports are forecast at 3.2 billion bushels, down 5 percent, while ending stocks fall 185 million bushels. USDA projects the season-average corn price at $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents.
Wheat carried one of the strongest market signals. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with hard red winter wheat down 36 percent to 515 million bushels. WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, ending stocks down 18 percent, and the season-average price at $6.50 per bushel.
Soybeans look more mixed. USDA projects a 4.435 billion-bushel crop, up 173 million bushels, with crush rising to 2.750 billion bushels due to strong soybean oil demand for biofuels. Exports are projected at 1.630 billion bushels, and ending stocks fall to 310 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.40 per bushel.
Cotton production is projected at 13.30 million bales, down 600,000 from 2025/26, while exports rise to 12.30 million bales. Rice production is projected to be 15 percent lower at 175.2 million hundredweight, with the season-average price rising to $13.50 per hundredweight.
Livestock remains split. USDA lowers 2026 beef production and raises beef imports on tight cattle supplies and strong demand for lean processing beef, while pork production and exports are raised for the second half of the year.
Sugar also tightens, with beet sugar production projected at 4.722 million short tons, raw value, and harvested area at its lowest level since 2019/20.
