USDA Trims Beef Outlook, Raises Pork Production Forecast

Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) September WASDE report adjusted 2025 livestock projections, signaling shifts in beef and pork markets while leaving poultry largely steady.

The USDA’s outlook points to slightly weaker cattle and hog prices as supplies remain ample, but dairy and poultry show firmer pricing. Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.

BEEF AND DAIRY CATTLE

For beef, the USDA lowered production slightly as lighter-fed cattle weights offset larger-than-expected slaughter. Exports were reduced due to weaker Asian demand, while imports were raised with strong inflows from Australia. Cattle prices are projected to be lower, with the 2025 steer price forecast trimmed to $176 per hundredweight (cwt).

In dairy, milk production was left essentially unchanged, but the USDA raised its Class III and Class IV milk price forecasts on more pungent cheese and butter demand. The all-milk price for 2025 is now forecast at $22.00/cwt.

PORK

Pork production was increased due to higher-than-anticipated slaughter numbers. Exports were raised modestly, reflecting stronger demand from Mexico and Asia. The 2025 hog price was adjusted downward to $65.50/cwt, pressured by larger supplies.

POULTRY

For broilers, production forecasts held steady, but the USDA lowered exports on weaker international demand. Prices are expected to remain firm at $1.29 per pound for 2025. Turkey production and trade forecasts were unchanged, with prices stable at $1.24 per pound.

Related Stories
Improved export prospects and higher crop prices strengthened future expectations despite continued caution about spending.
While the agriculture industry hoped details on proposed “bridge” payments for farmers would be released this week, Ag Secretary Brook Rollins said the USDA is still working with the White House on the finer points.
China’s renewed purchases signal improving sorghum demand at a time when export markets are otherwise uneven. Meanwhile, agriculture groups across the U.S, Canada, and Mexico want to protect close trade relations.
Strong demand supports sweet potatoes, but grading challenges and rising costs weigh on returns for Southeastern growers.
Pressure on grain storage capacity and stronger export positioning are pushing more grain onto railroads, highways, and river systems as logistics become a key bottleneck this fall.
The Cotton-4 are pushing hard for new value chain investments. Still, many U.S. cotton producers face unsustainable losses, and weakened regional textile capacity threatens the survival of the Carolina “dirt-to-shirt” supply chain.
The newly elected Executive Vice President of the Tennessee Cattlemen’s Association (TCA), Dale Parker, joins us on-set to share his vision for his state’s cattle industry.
Despite the need for swift action, many ag lawmakers and industry groups argue that farm aid alone will likely not be sufficient to help farmers without improved trade relations with China.
Tyson’s capacity cuts weaken local basis, tighten kill space, and heighten dependence on imports, signaling more volatility for producers.

(Tags: USDA, WASDE, Beef, Pork, Dairy, Poultry, Livestock Markets)

Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.