NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its 2025 Farm Income Forecast to $179.8 billion, down slightly from February’s $180.1 billion projection. Despite the adjustment, net farm income is still projected to rise nearly 40 percent compared to 2024, largely due to stronger livestock markets and a surge in government payments.
AgAmerica Lending notes that direct government payments are forecast at $40.5 billion, a 356 percent increase from last year, primarily tied to disaster aid and new farm program funding.
Crop markets remain under pressure, however, with receipts for corn, soybeans, and wheat expected to decline. In contrast, receipts for cattle, hogs, and poultry are forecast to be higher on tighter herds and stronger demand.
Rising production expenses remain a concern, with labor and livestock costs climbing even as feed, fuel, and pesticide expenses ease. Farm debt is also forecast to increase to $592 billion, but asset values—especially farmland—continue to support balance sheets. While the short-term outlook is positive, analysts stress that volatility in trade and interest rates could pressure farm finances in the longer term.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Livestock and government payments provide a boost, but crop receipts and rising expenses continue to put pressure on margins. Strong financial planning remains key in a volatile environment.
Farmers await concrete trade commitments from China. Until then, export prospects for soybeans, corn, and sorghum remain uncertain against strong South American competition.
September 16, 2025 11:04 AM
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National Sorghum Producers CEO Tim Lust said farmers face a challenging year with strong supply, murky trade conditions, and uncertain access to their largest market: China.
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RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James breaks down the state of agribusiness and harvest progress across the U.S. for the week of Monday, September 15, 2025.
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U.S. trade talks with China resume, but meat industry leaders say dealing with shifting demand and market uncertainty is nothing new in this side of the ag sector.
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Tariffs are pushing up input costs, with fertilizer prices rising $100 per ton and machinery costs climbing due to steel and parts duties.
September 15, 2025 12:21 PM
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Year-round sales of E-15 are another major topic on Capitol Hill, which, according to Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE), is one issue up for debate this session with significant bipartisan support.
September 15, 2025 12:09 PM
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American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland joins us to share his reaction to September’s WASDE and discuss the trade uncertainty between China and his industry.
September 12, 2025 02:13 PM
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Harvested acres are estimated at 90.0 million, making this year’s corn crop one of the largest since the 1930s.
September 12, 2025 12:38 PM
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China has been largely absent from U.S. markets lately, but not when it comes to cotton. It’s a buy that, traders say, isn’t surprising given China’s limitations.
September 12, 2025 12:07 PM
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