USDA Wheat Cuts Trigger Rally in Grain Markets

Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.

hard-red-winter-wheat.jpg

Hard Red Winter Wheat

Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.

The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.

Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.

WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.

USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.

The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Wholesale egg prices decreased by 64% from their peak in late 2024, while retail prices have dropped by 27%, according to a recent USDA update.
This isn’t your average baked macaroni. Justin Wilson’s Macaroni, Sausage, and Pecan Casserole brings together comfort and creativity in one unforgettable dish.
A rich, old-fashioned bread pudding made with brandy, raisins, and vanilla—baked until golden and full of warm Southern flavor, just like Justin liked it!
“South central Kansas is really behind schedule...”
Justin Wilson’s Shrimp and Macaroni Casserole features bold, Cajun spice and big flavors—you’ll love this easy, crowd-pleasing dish.
This is the basic roux. Cajuns will say that a finished roux shines. This is the only roux recipe you’ll ever need — I GARONTEE!

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

For farmers, better data may not solve every local rail problem, but it can make service failures easier to document.
Smaller exporter crops and lower global stocks could keep wheat markets sensitive to weather, trade, and shifts in demand.
Corn inspections remain strong year-to-date, while China’s soybean and sorghum movement remains important to late-season export demand.
NRCS leadership affects how conservation dollars, technical assistance and working-lands priorities reach farmers and ranchers.
Southern Plains wheat shippers face higher rail fuel surcharges as hard red winter wheat production falls toward a nearly 70-year low.
Operating debt remains manageable in many areas, but rising non-accrual loans show why careful cash-flow management matters in 2026.