USDA Wheat Cuts Trigger Rally in Grain Markets

Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.

hard-red-winter-wheat.jpg

Hard Red Winter Wheat

Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.

The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.

Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.

WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.

USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.

The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
The USDA’s upcoming reports will drop on Tuesday afternoon, giving the trade real results on acreage shifts, drought concerns, and ongoing trade tensions, adding uncertainty for U.S. farmers.
Expanded access could boost demand for U.S. exports.
Margins shift across the chain based on timing.
Exports depend more on demand than currency shifts.
Spring Fieldwork Advances As Weather Patterns Shift Nationwide
Corn Refiners Association VP Kristy Goodfellow offered insight into the Feeding the Economy Report’s key findings, showing the breadth of agriculture’s economic impact and the challenges ahead.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

E15 policy could shape future corn demand outlook.
Agricultural groups warn that the deal could limit competition and raise transportation costs for farmers
The Trump Administration’s new rule limiting CDL renewals for immigrant truckers is seeing mixed reactions in agriculture. While some support the change, it is raising concerns about higher freight costs and impacts on U.S. grain export competitiveness.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer explains the updates to crop insurance subsidies, additional benefits for new farmers, and eligibility considerations for those entering the program.
Higher prices are bringing relief to markets, but rising input costs are putting pressure on the producers.
Regulatory changes may influence farm costs and operations.