Vegetable Markets Mixed as Record Yields Offset Acreage

Record yields are cushioning production declines, but softer prices underscore the importance of cost control and market timing for vegetable growers.

grocery store prices_photo by Gorodenkoff via Adobe Stock_240749444.jpg

Photo by Gorodenkoff via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — U.S. vegetable markets posted mixed results in 2025 as record yields for several crops helped offset lower acreage, while grower prices weakened across much of the fresh market sector. USDA’s latest Vegetables and Pulses Outlook highlights how weather, productivity gains, and shifting demand shaped outcomes heading into the 2025–26 marketing year.

Potatoes remain a key example of this dynamic. USDA forecasts 2025 U.S. potato production at 412.1 million hundredweight, down 2 percent from last year, as harvested acreage declined 3.5 percent. That reduction was partially offset by a record-high average yield of 461 cwt per acre. Despite the smaller crop, fresh potato grower prices during the first two months of the marketing year trailed year-ago levels, reflecting ample supplies and softer demand.

Fresh market vegetables broadly faced lower prices in 2025. Lettuce, onions, tomatoes, broccoli, cauliflower, and celery all posted lower year-to-date average grower prices through October compared with 2024, driven by more favorable growing conditions. Some price improvement emerged late in the season, but it was insufficient to offset earlier declines.

Processing vegetables showed more resilience. California processing tomatoes, which dominate the processing sector, are expected to post record yields, largely compensating for reduced contracted acreage and stabilizing overall output.

Beyond traditional vegetables, mushroom production continued to grow modestly, with total sales volume rising 2 percent in 2024/25 and total value reaching $1.1 billion. Pulse crops experienced sharp production increases due to higher yields, although grower prices trended lower as supplies expanded.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Record yields are cushioning production declines, but softer prices underscore the importance of cost control and market timing for vegetable growers.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Commercial performance will determine whether the specialty sorghum market can expand across poultry-producing regions.
Improved coffee output could strengthen the U.S. supply, but input costs and weather risks keep the outlook uncertain.
AFBF economist Danny Munch joins us to break down the program’s eligibility requirements and payment structure.
The aggressive disease can lead to significant yield losses without timely treatment.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The DOJ is conducting a criminal antitrust investigation into major beef processors, following years of concern over market concentration.
Producers growing multiple spring crops should compare CLIP with individual coverage increases and county-based supplemental protection.
Estimates for 2026 harvested crops remain early. Corn and sorghum are below their reference prices, while wheat and soybeans are above them.
Markets Analysts and Livestock Experts Say Screwworm Adds Costs for Producers, Not Food Safety Risks
Data centers will continue expanding, but local decisions will determine whether that growth protects agricultural water access or adds stress to already vulnerable production regions.
A long-running poultry waste lawsuit remains unresolved after a federal judge rejected proposed settlements and appeals followed.