Vegetable Markets Mixed as Record Yields Offset Acreage

Record yields are cushioning production declines, but softer prices underscore the importance of cost control and market timing for vegetable growers.

grocery store prices_photo by Gorodenkoff via Adobe Stock_240749444.jpg

Photo by Gorodenkoff via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — U.S. vegetable markets posted mixed results in 2025 as record yields for several crops helped offset lower acreage, while grower prices weakened across much of the fresh market sector. USDA’s latest Vegetables and Pulses Outlook highlights how weather, productivity gains, and shifting demand shaped outcomes heading into the 2025–26 marketing year.

Potatoes remain a key example of this dynamic. USDA forecasts 2025 U.S. potato production at 412.1 million hundredweight, down 2 percent from last year, as harvested acreage declined 3.5 percent. That reduction was partially offset by a record-high average yield of 461 cwt per acre. Despite the smaller crop, fresh potato grower prices during the first two months of the marketing year trailed year-ago levels, reflecting ample supplies and softer demand.

Fresh market vegetables broadly faced lower prices in 2025. Lettuce, onions, tomatoes, broccoli, cauliflower, and celery all posted lower year-to-date average grower prices through October compared with 2024, driven by more favorable growing conditions. Some price improvement emerged late in the season, but it was insufficient to offset earlier declines.

Processing vegetables showed more resilience. California processing tomatoes, which dominate the processing sector, are expected to post record yields, largely compensating for reduced contracted acreage and stabilizing overall output.

Beyond traditional vegetables, mushroom production continued to grow modestly, with total sales volume rising 2 percent in 2024/25 and total value reaching $1.1 billion. Pulse crops experienced sharp production increases due to higher yields, although grower prices trended lower as supplies expanded.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Record yields are cushioning production declines, but softer prices underscore the importance of cost control and market timing for vegetable growers.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Plan for sharp, short-term volatility after unexpected outages; permanent closures rarely trigger major price spread disruptions.
Ethanol output softened, but underlying supply-and-demand trends indicate stable longer-term use despite short-term volatility in blending and exports.
Strong Farm Credit finances help cushion producers, but prolonged low crop margins could strain renewals in 2026.
USDA data confirms that U.S. agriculture remains overwhelmingly family-run despite structural shifts in scale and production, according to a new analystis by Farm Flavor.
Stronger sorghum genetics could enhance the resilience of bioenergy crops and broaden production options for growers in harsher climates.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to break down the scope of the U.S. Christmas Tree industry and what growers are up against.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

A disciplined, breakeven-based marketing plan helps protect margins and reduce risk, even when markets remain unpredictable.
Expanded school access to whole milk provides modest but reliable demand support for U.S. dairy producers.
The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 2026 agenda centers on labor stability, biosecurity, and economic resilience for family farms. Expanded DMC coverage improves risk protection for dairy operations facing tighter margins.
Agronomy experts explain why standing crop residue protects soil and reduces costs for crop growers, while shredding often yields little benefit at higher costs.
Freight volatility increasingly determines export margins, making logistics costs as important as price in marketing decisions.
China’s beef policy risk stems from domestic volatility, making export demand inherently unstable. Jake Charleston with Specialty Risk Insurance offers his perspective on cattle markets, risk management, and producer sentiment.