WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. (RFD NEWS) — Farmers are showing signs of caution and concern as the next U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report release date approaches for February. While typically one of the least volatile reports of the year, market analysts are highlighting several key trends to watch, including potential declines in corn ending stocks due to strong export demand and solid ethanol use.
Soybean ending stocks are expected to remain mostly unchanged, with slower exports offset by record crush levels, while firm wheat export demand could lead to lower ending stocks. Historically, price moves following the February report have been modest across all three markets.
Fred Seamon, Executive Director of Ag Research at CME Group, joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to discuss the latest Ag Economy Barometer, which indicates that increasing economic concerns are weighing on farmer sentiment.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, Seamon said the drop in sentiment reflects growing unease among farmers as they navigate lower margins, market uncertainty, and mixed signals from recent supply-and-demand data. The survey also showed a more pessimistic outlook on U.S. agricultural exports, with trade challenges and global competition cited as major headwinds.
Seamon also noted that the most recent CME survey included questions about the USDA’s Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, finding that many producers plan to use those payments to manage cash flow and offset rising input costs.
Biparisan Biofuels Group Sends Plea to Congress — and Clean Fuels Guidance Updates
Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of former leaders from major farm and biofuels organizations sent a letter to Congress on Tuesday, warning that the U.S. farm economy is nearing a breaking point. The group cited administration policies that have caused serious harm, pointing to doubled farmer bankruptcies, rising debt, higher input costs, and a historic agricultural trade deficit.
The letter comes as new data show farmer sentiment dropping sharply in January, with more producers expecting financial trouble ahead. The group urged swift congressional action, including tariff relief, new trade deals, passage of a new farm bill, and labor reform.
Our continuing coverage also focused on the new 45-Z tax credit guidance, which should provide stronger incentives for biofuel production and encourage some purchases to shift to domestic feedstocks.
According to the Clean Fuels Alliance, with the guidance now officially published in the Federal Register, stakeholders have a 60-day comment period to review the proposal, submit feedback, and participate in a public hearing scheduled for late May.
A spokesperson explained, “They’ve indicated a 60-day comment period. So stakeholders and taxpayers will have an opportunity to review this and submit comments to the agency for consideration. Then they will digest those comments, have a public hearing, respond to those comments as much as possible, and then publish a final rule, probably sometime this summer. While this tax credit took effect on January 1 of 2025, getting final guidance in the summer of 2026 is far from ideal. There’s a lot of language in this proposal that acts as a safe harbor so taxpayers can reasonably rely upon it and operate their businesses based on this.”
Comments must be submitted by April 6, and officials hope the process will provide clarity and certainty for producers and taxpayers alike.
Join us next week on Market Day Report and Rural Evening News for an in-depth analysis of the USDA’s upcoming WASDE Report, which is planned for release on Monday afternoon.
