NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — A softer U.S. dollar is improving export competitiveness for American crops, offering potential price support without requiring lower farm-gate bids, according to economists with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension.
Because most global agricultural commodities are priced in dollars, exchange rates directly affect foreign buying power. When the dollar weakens, overseas buyers can purchase more U.S. grain and fiber using their local currency, often strengthening export demand and supporting domestic prices. The opposite occurs during a strong-dollar environment, which tends to slow export movement and pressure bids.
Farm-Level Takeaway: A weaker dollar supports export demand and may strengthen crop prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
During 2025, currency trends shifted in agriculture’s favor. The broad U.S. dollar index fell 7.2 percent after rising the previous year, while key customer currencies strengthened, including the euro and the Mexican peso. Brazil’s real also appreciated, potentially limiting Brazil’s ability to undercut U.S. offers in global markets.
Research shows even small currency moves matter. A one-percent decline in the dollar has historically been associated with roughly a half-percent increase in the value of U.S. agricultural exports.
Benefits, however, do not appear instantly. Exchange-rate effects filter unevenly into basis and contracts depending on timing and location.
USDA’s February WASDE report, analysts expect minimal price movement as grain stocks remain steady. Traders weigh renewed Chinese soybean purchases, South American weather, acreage shifts, and upcoming USMCA trade talks.
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