Wheat
Friday’s release will be the first WASDE report in about two months, and early estimates indicate a corn surplus is still on the way.
Export strength is concentrated in corn and wheat, while soybeans and sorghum lag, keeping basis and logistics dynamics highly commodity-specific into late fall.
While the U.S.-China framework for soybean trade is in place, Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs tells us he will believe it when he sees it.
Wheat futures briefly hit a three-month high before retreating as the markets wait for word on whether the deal will actually happen.
A strong corn export pull is supportive of bids; soybeans need steady vessel programs or fresh sales to firm cash.
China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
Rich Nelson, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc., joins us to break down what the U.S.-China trade agreement means for the ag economy.
Export volumes remain positive year-to-date, but weaker soybean loadings and slowing wheat movement hint at early bottlenecks in global demand or river logistics. Farmers should watch basis levels and freight conditions as export competition heats up.
Australia’s expanding harvest and global oversupply are keeping wheat and barley prices capped, though canola markets may hold firmer on shifting oilseed demand.