WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. cattle industry is reacting strongly to recent discussions about importing beef from Argentina — a move floated as a possible way to ease high grocery prices.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Bernt Nelson joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to help unpack the many headlines unfolding in the beef industry and provide an updated outlook on the current market.
In his interview with RFD-TV News, Nelson said beef prices remain historically high, primarily driven by tight cattle supplies, strong consumer demand, and higher production costs throughout the supply chain. Drought and herd liquidation in recent years, a halt on feeder cattle imports from Mexico due to the outbreak of New World Screwworm, and drops in beef imports from Brazil due to tariffs have also limited available cattle numbers, keeping prices elevated.
One interesting factor, Nelson notes, is the elevated average age of the American rancher, and how the current industry outlook is incentivizing more and more into early retirement.
“Now if we think about the average age of the farmer – 58.5 years old – and these prices, along with these near-record input costs, are incentivizing some cattle farmers to retire out of the industry,” Nelson said. “Farmers and ranchers leaving the business is becoming a huge roadblock to growing the beef herd. So if you think about this in the long run, this could be a real problem.”
When it comes to increasing U.S. beef imports from Argentina, Nelson explains that importing beef from that market would likely have only a minimal impact on U.S. prices.
Argentina’s export volume is small compared to total U.S. consumption, and logistical hurdles — including tariffs and inspection requirements — limit the amount of product that could realistically enter the market.
“This amount, if we think about it, would really not have a measurable impact on the prices paid by consumers for beef, but has already had a massive effect on futures prices,” Nelson said.
Even if the amount of imported lean ground beef from Argentina were increased fourfold, it would only account for about three percent of all U.S. beef imports from other countries.
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