WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV NEWS) — Congress is returning to Washington, D.C. with a full year of work ahead. Ag lawmakers are hoping a new Farm Bill can see some action, but a major deadline later this month could slow that progress: another government shutdown is looming.
When Congress ended the shutdown in November, it only guaranteed smooth operations through the end of January, and they still need to address several spending measures.
The latest stopgap spending bill expires January 30. Thankfully for the agriculture sector, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)Department functions would not be affected as they were last time, as Congress has already finalized spending for USDA and the FDA.
The new year means Congress will need to address major trade issues on the horizon in North America, including agricultural trade with China, taking a look at updated grain stocks in the next World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report, and the upcoming review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
U.S.-China Beef Trade Concerns
China has completed a year-long study on beef imports, which has led to higher tariffs on select countries, including the United States. Chinese officials say imported beef has seriously damaged their domestic beef industry.
As a result, they are imposing safeguard tariffs on imports of beef from several countries for shipments above a specified threshold. For the United States, that total is 164,000 tons. Any amount we send beyond that will be subject to a 55 percent tariff. Exports below that threshold will be subject to the current 22 percent rate.
Upcoming WASDE Report to Survey Held Grain
We are one week away from this month’s WASDE report, and it is one the markets are eager to see. We will obtain grain stocks and crop production numbers for the year. Ag economist Joe Janzen is bracing for the numbers to show extra supplies on hand.
“I don’t have a crystal ball into what that report will contain -- I just suspect that we will see higher-than-normal levels of on-farm inventories of corn and soybeans after this 2025 harvest, which was maybe not as big as we once thought it could be, but was still a big crop by any measure,” Janzen said. “And so, if we do, in fact, see that, and the farmer is a big holder of corn and beans after harvest, they have a bigger marketing challenge than they would in any other year.”
Janzen says the upcoming report could pose a significant challenge for growers with full silos.
“In terms of how do we get that crop priced and not get pushed into a narrow marketing window where prices may not be what we would have hoped they would get to, where we would get sort of in terms of that typical seasonal improvement in price may not be there,” Janzen explained. “Given the big crop and the big farmer inventories and then whatever news we get about the size of the crop elsewhere in the world, principally South America.”
The January WASDE Report will be out one week from today, next Monday at Noon ET. And of course, we’ll bring you those numbers as soon as they are released, right here on Market Day Report.
USMCA Review Set for Summer 2026
The upcoming review of the USMCA is a critical trade issue that ag groups have been preparing for a long time. While the review will not be conducted until this summer, leaders at the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) say work will continue behind the scenes until that time.
“Folks from the various trade and other agencies and their governments will get together to work on the issues and prepare, hopefully, an agreement that they can discuss in July,” explained Dave Salmonsen, AFBF Senior Director of Government Affairs. “And in Congress, they’ll expect hearings from the House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate, from the Finance Committee, perhaps other committees.”
Salmonsen says the joint review is an opportunity to improve trade among the three North American neighbors. However, he says, some issues will arise, particularly regarding Canada’s dairy access and Mexico’s seasonal import surges.
