LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A new model outlining the beef supply chain shows how value shifts from pasture to retail, highlighting how timing, costs, and yields determine who captures margins.
Hyrum Egbert, writing in the Big Bad Beefpacker newsletter, developed a framework that tracks cattle through cow-calf, stocker, feedyard, packer, and retail stages using consistent weights, pricing, and cost structures. The model follows an 18-month lifecycle and aligns each stage with appropriate pricing benchmarks, from live cattle values to boxed beef and retail pricing.
The analysis emphasizes that margins are not fixed within one segment. Instead, profitability varies with market conditions, input costs, and the sector holding risk at any given time. Feed costs, cattle prices, and beef demand all influence how value is distributed across the chain.
Yield and shrink also play a critical role. The model estimates a loss of roughly 11 to 12 percent from carcass to retail cuts and an additional 8 percent at the retail level, underscoring how much product never reaches the consumer.
The framework highlights that changes in any one part of the system — from weights to pricing assumptions — can shift margins across the entire chain.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Margins shift across the chain based on timing.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Danny Munch of the American Farm Bureau joined us to discuss USDA’s latest farm income forecast, revisions to prior estimates, and what the updated data means for farmers heading into 2026.
February 06, 2026 12:27 PM
·
Representative Henry Cuellar (D-TX), who sits on the U.S. House Appropriations Committee, spoke exclusively with RFD NEWS about what Congress is doing to address screwworm concerns, including funding for a sterile fly production facility in Mexico.
February 06, 2026 12:07 PM
·
HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy calls on cattle producers to retain breeding cows while Ivomec receives emergency authorization to prevent New World screwworm.
February 06, 2026 11:48 AM
·
The U.S. trade deal with Argentina creates new export opportunities for U.S. livestock and crop producers but also raises competitive concerns.
February 06, 2026 10:15 AM
·
Policies aimed at ground beef prices may primarily reshape dairy incentives rather than deliver lasting consumer savings.
February 06, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Ranchbot Monitoring Solutions provides remote water-monitoring technology to help ranchers manage livestock water more efficiently.
February 05, 2026 03:26 PM
·
