LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A new model outlining the beef supply chain shows how value shifts from pasture to retail, highlighting how timing, costs, and yields determine who captures margins.
Hyrum Egbert, writing in the Big Bad Beefpacker newsletter, developed a framework that tracks cattle through cow-calf, stocker, feedyard, packer, and retail stages using consistent weights, pricing, and cost structures. The model follows an 18-month lifecycle and aligns each stage with appropriate pricing benchmarks, from live cattle values to boxed beef and retail pricing.
The analysis emphasizes that margins are not fixed within one segment. Instead, profitability varies with market conditions, input costs, and the sector holding risk at any given time. Feed costs, cattle prices, and beef demand all influence how value is distributed across the chain.
Yield and shrink also play a critical role. The model estimates a loss of roughly 11 to 12 percent from carcass to retail cuts and an additional 8 percent at the retail level, underscoring how much product never reaches the consumer.
The framework highlights that changes in any one part of the system — from weights to pricing assumptions — can shift margins across the entire chain.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Margins shift across the chain based on timing.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
While row crops are expected to see softer impacts, analysts say severe weather of this magnitude will not be as kind to cattle producers.
January 22, 2026 11:05 AM
·
Dairy farmer and Discover Ag co-host Tara Vander Dussen joined us to discuss the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, her experience at the signing, and what’s next for her family and farm.
January 21, 2026 12:42 PM
·
Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
January 21, 2026 12:03 PM
·
Wayne Cockrell with the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association joined us to discuss preparedness, producer awareness, and the industry’s response to New World screwworm concerns.
January 21, 2026 12:00 PM
·
Corn and wheat exports remain a demand bright spot, while soybeans are transitioning into a more typical late-winter shipping slowdown.
January 21, 2026 10:36 AM
·
Alan Bjerga with the National Milk Producers Federation joined us to review new policies and regulations supporting the dairy industry and what they mean for the year ahead.
January 20, 2026 03:25 PM
·
