Boxed Beef Prices Surge Early on Tight Supplies

Tight supplies are driving stronger early-year cattle prices.

Spicy Beef Back Ribs_NCBA_19709441-g.jpeg

Photo by ricka_kinamoto via Adobe Stock

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Wholesale beef prices are moving higher earlier than normal this year, signaling tighter supplies and strong demand across cattle markets.

The Choice boxed beef cutout moved above $400 per hundredweight, up roughly $50 since the start of the year, according to analysis from Mississippi State University’s Josh Maples. The Select cutout also climbed sharply, reaching levels not seen since mid-2020. The spread between Choice and Select has remained narrow, indicating a limited premium for higher-grade cattle so far in 2026.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight supplies are driving stronger early-year cattle prices.
Ton St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Beef prices typically build gradually early in the year before peaking ahead of summer demand. This year’s move higher is happening sooner, reflecting tighter cattle supplies and reduced beef production. Buyers may also be stepping in earlier to secure product ahead of expected supply constraints later this spring.

Strength in Rib and Loin primals have driven much of the increase, with both cuts trending higher since mid-January and supporting the broader cutout. Firm boxed beef values continue to provide underlying support to fed cattle prices as the market moves toward peak seasonal demand.

Related Stories
Farm numbers still favor small operations, but production, resilience, and risk management are increasingly concentrated among fewer, larger farms.
The USDA opened a new sterile fly-dispersal facility at Moore Air Base in South Texas to prevent a potential outbreak of New World screwworm and protect the small U.S. cattle herd.
China’s reliance on imported soybeans remains entrenched, shaping global demand and trade leverage.
Cuba remains a steady, nearby buyer of U.S. poultry, pork, dairy, and staples, but legal and compliance risks could still affect shipping and payment channels.
Agriculture remains a key drag on regional growth amid weak prices and policy uncertainty.
Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Beef x Dairy cattle with strong genetics and documentation are earning prices comparable to native feeders.
Reliable waterways lower costs, protect export demand, and support long-term farm profitability.
Strong White House backing supports ethanol demand, but timing now hinges on Congress resolving procedural — at the same time as they push toward a spending bill to avert another federal government shutdown.
Greater transparency into USDA-backed lending can help rural lenders and producers better assess credit availability and investment trends.
Mixed product pricing and rising milk supplies suggest margin management will remain critical as 2026 unfolds.
Corn and soybean exports continue to anchor weekly inspection totals, with China maintaining a visible role, while wheat and sorghum remain more dependent on regional and seasonal demand shifts.