STARKVILLE, MISS. (RFD NEWS) — Fertilizer risk does not move evenly across products, leaving farmers exposed to different prices and supply threats for nitrogen, phosphate, and potash. Mississippi State University Extension economist Dr. William E. Maples says disruptions can affect each nutrient differently.
Nitrogen is closely tied to natural gas and shipping routes. Maples says the United States produced an average of 95 percent of its domestic nitrogen consumption over the past five years, but remaining imports still come from Canada and Trinidad and Tobago.
Phosphate comes from concentrated mineral deposits. China led phosphate rock production in 2025, while Morocco holds an estimated 68 percent of global reserves. The United States produces most of its phosphate needs, with some imports continuing.
Potash carries the largest U.S. import exposure. More than 90 percent of U.S. consumption comes from imports, primarily Canada, while Russia and Belarus remain global suppliers affected by geopolitical uncertainty.
For producers, fertilizer planning requires watching more than price. Energy markets, shipping routes, sanctions, and regional supply access can quickly change replacement costs ahead of application seasons.
Fertilizer security remains a growing concern worldwide as countries assess their dependence on imported nutrients and the risks posed by global supply disruptions to agricultural production.
Matt Simpson, CEO of Brazil Potash, joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to discuss Brazil’s efforts to strengthen domestic potash production and reduce its reliance on imports.
In his interview with RFD News, Simpson explained that despite being one of the world’s leading agricultural exporters, Brazil imports more than 95 percent of its potash needs, creating a significant strategic vulnerability for a country whose agricultural sector depends heavily on reliable fertilizer supplies.
He also discussed how global fertilizer markets have evolved in recent years amid supply chain disruptions, geopolitical conflicts, trade restrictions, and transportation challenges, which exposed vulnerabilities throughout the global nutrient supply system.
The conversation also explored how fertilizer production is increasingly being viewed through both economic and geopolitical lenses, with countries recognizing the importance of domestic nutrient supplies to food security, agricultural productivity, and long-term economic stability.
Simpson noted that fertilizer independence is becoming a larger strategic priority for agricultural nations as policymakers and industry leaders work to reduce exposure to global market volatility and supply disruptions.
Finally, he also outlined what greater domestic potash production could mean for Brazil’s agricultural sector, including improved supply reliability, reduced dependence on foreign suppliers, and enhanced competitiveness for one of the world’s largest crop-producing regions.
