LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Brazil’s expanding crop production continues to reshape global markets, raising competitive pressure for U.S. producers as the Southern Hemisphere growing season moves forward. William Maples, Extension economist with Mississippi State University, says early indicators from Brazil suggest another year of heavy export competition for soybeans, corn, and cotton.
Soybean harvest has just begun, with national progress still below 1 percent as of mid-January. USDA projects Brazilian soybean production at 178 million metric tons, equivalent to roughly 6.5 billion bushels, which would mark a new record if achieved. Strong demand from China and Brazil’s B15 biodiesel mandate continues to support expansion. Exports are forecast at 114 million metric tons, or about 4.2 billion bushels, compared with projected U.S. exports of 1.6 billion bushels.
Corn outlooks carry more uncertainty. Brazil is projected to produce 131 million metric tons of corn, roughly 5.2 billion bushels, about 2 percent below last year. La Niña risks and delays in soybean harvest could limit planting of second-crop safrinha corn, which now accounts for nearly four-fifths of Brazil’s total corn output.
Brazilian cotton production is projected at 18.75 million bales, up 10 percent from last year, reinforcing Brazil’s position as the world’s leading cotton exporter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if weather allows production to reach projected levels.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Sen. Roger Marshall, a founding member and chairman of the Make America Healthy Again caucus, joined us with his thoughts on the commission’s latest report and the key ag-related issues.
September 17, 2025 04:36 PM
·
Grain shippers face lower freight values thanks to weak soybean exports and strong rail service, but barge traffic and forward Gulf loadings suggest continued uncertainty as harvest ramps up.
September 17, 2025 04:01 PM
·
It’s been a decade since Hurricane Rita ripped through southwest Louisiana, and recovery has been a long, difficult process for many who have lived in the coastal area. Today, oyster farming offers a pearl of hope.
September 17, 2025 03:05 PM
·
The Fertilizer Research Act, reintroduced by Sens. Grassley, Ernst, and Baldwin, would direct the USDA to study and publish public reports on competition and pricing trends in the fertilizer market.
September 16, 2025 05:08 PM
·
Allowing year-round sales of E15 nationally could deliver billions in economic gains, according to a new study from the Renewable Fuels Association and National Corn Growers Association.
September 16, 2025 02:29 PM
·
Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.
September 16, 2025 12:42 PM
·
