Cattle On-Feed Estimates Signal Slight Market Softening Ahead

Early Cattle-on-Feed estimates point to slightly tighter cattle supplies, reinforcing the need to monitor prices and timing for winter marketing.

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — U.S. feedlots are expected to show slightly lighter October and November cattle inventories as analysts anticipate modest declines in placements and marketings heading into winter. The latest pre-report trade estimates suggest on-feed totals remain below year-ago levels, signaling tighter feeder supplies that could influence pricing and marketing strategies through early 2026.

Analysts surveyed ahead of the USDA’s delayed Cattle on Feed report project November 1 on-feed inventories around 97.8% of last year, with October placements near 92.1% and marketings near 92.4%. Estimates for October 1 similarly point to softer activity, including placements at 91.2% and marketings at 95.9%, reflecting disruptions from the recent government shutdown that delayed reporting.

For cattle producers, shrinking placements may tighten fed-cattle supplies later in 2026, while steady marketings indicate continued movement despite cost pressures. Feedlots may face firmer feeder prices if numbers remain below normal levels. Lower cash and future prices may also signal that the market is ready for expansion through heifer retention and herd rebuilding.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Early estimates point to slightly tighter cattle supplies, reinforcing the need to monitor prices and timing for winter marketing.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Spice up your morning with this quick, flavorful Southwest breakfast recipe! RFD-TV’s Tammi Arender and Lyndi Knowles of ZK Ranches share this hearty and flavorful breakfast idea.
Tammi Arender’s recipe for Hawaiian Ribeye Steaks with Grilled Pineapple Citrus Salad will make you feel like you are on the beach surrounded by palm trees. She joins the Tennessee Beef Council to walk us through the recipe!
RFD-TV’s Tammi Arender visited ZK Ranches in Springfield, Tennessee, to cook some of their homegrown beef, including Date Night Filet Mignon!
What better way to celebrate our beef producers than to eat a delicious burger recipe? RFD-TV’s Tammi Arender shows us a new way to dress up our burgers that will impress everyone this grilling season.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

U.S. producers are holding off on equipment investments amid financial pressure, market uncertainty, a rising demand for diesel, and growing desperation for trade wins.
How many burgers could you buy instead of a house?
Let’s take a look at harvest progress as of early September 2025, across all 50 U.S. States, prepared by Market Day Report anchor and RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James.
Agriculture Shows
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.
The goal of “Where the Food Comes From” is as simple as its name implies — host Chip Carter takes you along on the journey of where our food comes from — and we don’t just mean to the supermarket (though that’s part of the big picture!). But beyond where it comes from, how it gets there, and all the links in the chain that make that happen.
Join markets specialist Scott Shellady, better known as the Cow Guy, as he covers the market-close, breaking down headlines that drive the commodities and equities markets with commentary from respected industry heavyweights.